Japan’s new Defense Minister Minoru Kihara inspected the Self-Defense Forces（SDF） for the first time. On September 24, he went to Ishigaki Island near Taiwan, where a ground SDF station was opened this March. Kihara said on the island that in the event of a Taiwan contingency, Japan will dispatch the 8th Division to evacuate the islanders. In view of the rising tensions and increased probability of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait, Japan has not only strengthened its defense of the Nansei Islands, but also built evacuation shelters there and planned related measures for the evacuation of the islanders to Kyushu.
Ishigaki Island is located on the “Southwestern Defense Line” of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force. Other than the security force, it is mainly stationed with surface-to-ship and surface-to-air missile units, with a total of about 570 personnel. In addition to Ishigaki Island, Japan has recently stationed its SDF in the neighboring islands of Taiwan, namely Yonaguni Island and Miyako Island. This is part of Japan’s ongoing efforts to strengthen the defense capability of the Nansei Islands in response to China’s frequent activities in the vicinity of Diaoyutai Islands and Beijing’s rising military pressure on Taiwan.
Before the inspection at Ishigaki Island, Kihara first arrived at the station of the Western Front in Kumamoto Prefecture, which oversees Kyushu and Okinawa. Talking to the SDF, Kihara emphasized that “strengthening the southwest defense system is an urgent issue.” For the first time, Ishigaki Island will be included in the US-Japan “Resolute Dragon” off-island defense training to be held in October. At Ishigaki Island, Kihara said that “Japan does not allow the use of force to unilaterally change the status quo.” This is consistent to Japan’s approach to the Taiwan Strait issue, that is, Japan supports “peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”
As Taiwan has a strong strategic grip on Japan’s southwestern islands, naturally Japan is concerned about the China’s use of force against Taiwan, which is what the late Shinzo Abe referred as a “Taiwan contingency.” However, due to Japan’s defense laws, it is impossible to send the SDF to Taiwan in a “Taiwan contingency.” Officials from Japan’s Ministry of Defense said that the SDF deployment of the “Southwest Defense Line” would reduce the possibility of an attack on Japan, which is intended to strengthen its deterrent capability, reduce the possibility of the China’s unilateral change of the status quo by force, and prevent the war from turning a Taiwan contingency into a Japan contingency
In the book “The Taiwan Contingency and Japan’s Security” written by Yoshikazu Watanabe and three other retired generals, it is pointed out that if Taiwan falls into the hands of China, other countries in the first island chain may find it difficult to sleep or eat in peace. In fact, Yukichi Fukuzawa, the founder of the “Leave Asia” theory, said more than a hundred years ago that Taiwan in the hands of the China is like loud snoring next to the bed. Fukuzawa’s Taiwanese colonial policy focuses on the defense of the Nansei Islands, which is the same as former Prime Minister Abe’s strategic thinking of a Taiwan contingency. The retired SDF generals called on Japan to intervene in Taiwan’s survival and to maintain the stability of the Taiwan Strait. This, however, does not represent the policies of the SDF or the Kishida Cabinet.
Yasuhiro Matsuda, a cross-strait relations scholar, believes that Japan’s current security policy does not include the “defense of Taiwan”, but the SDF’s deterrence of China and its defense of Japan will have a strategic spillover effect, making it more difficult for China to attack Taiwan by force. Kihara recently said that the main task of the SDF stationed in the Nansei Islands is not only to defend Japanese territory in case of an emergency, but also to evacuate the islanders in a timely manner, which is also the concern of Okinawan citizens.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno pointed out that the security environment in Japan is currently complex and unstable, and protecting the citizens is a major issue. After listening to the local reflections and the strong wishes of residents, he learned that residents hope to cooperate with the government in the evacuation plan. A poll conducted by Japan’s “Mainichi Shimbun” shows that nearly 90% of the respondents are worried about the China attacking Taiwan, but this does not mean that the Japanese and Taiwanese share weal and woe and the former is willing to fight for Taiwan. A poll by Japan's “Asahi Shimbun” in May shows that if China and the US went to war over Taiwan, 80% of the respondents were worried about Japan’s involvement. And if China attacked Taiwan, only 11% believed that the SDF should cooperate with the US military against China. Public opinion is overwhelmingly opposed to military intervention. In responding to the “Taiwan contingency,” the Japanese cabinet is not only limited by the pacifist constitution, but also could not risk public opinion and stand up for Taiwan.
Japanese people attach importance to their own safety and security in the event of “Taiwan contingency.” Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno arrived at Ishigaki Island and Yonaguni Island on 22nd July to start a three-day inspection of the construction of evacuation shelters and evacuation plans of the islanders to Kyushu in an emergency. In the planned exercise held in March, it took 6 days to evacuate 55,000 islanders to places other than Ishigaki Island, and it could not have been done without the SDF’s participation. Therefore, the SDF would have been too busy to help Taiwan first. This illustrates the implications of a Taiwan contingency to Japan’s defense policy when Kihara visited the Ishigaki Island.
In the event of a Taiwan contingency, the people of the neighbouring Nansei Islands can be evacuated to the safety of Kyushu, but where can the Taiwanese people be evacuated to? Jake Sullivan, the US White House National Security Advisor, said at the Atlantic Festival on September 29, that tens of millions of people would face a direct military threat in the event of a conflict in Taiwan. Japan’s strategic deterrence in the Nansei Islands is not enough to hold up the security of the Taiwan Strait. In addition to the Taiwanese people supporting their Army in building up its military and preparing for war in order to achieve a deterrent effect, it is indispensable to have cross-strait dialogue in order to protect Taiwan from the fire of war.
（Ho Szu-shen,Distinguished Professor,Department of Japanese and Director,Centre for Japanese and East Asian Studies, Fu Jen Catholic University）
(Translated to English by Chen Cheng-Yi)
