The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) announced on August 2ndthat Vice President Lai Ching-te would lead a delegation to attend the inauguration of Paraguay’s new president, Santiago Peña. Vice President Lai’s delegation is scheduled to depart from Taiwan on the afternoon of August 12th, arrive that same day in New York for a transit stop for one night, leave New York on the evening of August 13th, arrive in Paraguay on the morning of August 14th, attend the inauguration of President Peña on August 15th, leave Paraguay on the morning of August 16th, arrive in San Francisco that same afternoon for a transit stop, leave San Francisco on the morning of August 17th, and arrive at the Taoyuan International Airport of Taiwan on the early morning of August 18th. In fact, Vice President Lai stopped over in the U.S. for the first time in 2021. This will be his second transit in the U.S. (and the eleventh transit in the U.S. for the vice president of the Republic of China). It is a routine arrangement based on safety.
Responding to Vice President Lai’s transit in the U.S., China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that “China firmly opposes any visit by ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists to the U.S. in any name or under whatever pretext…China will closely follow the developments and take firm and strong measures to safeguard our nation’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” on August 3rd. The Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) spokesperson also remarked on the same day that Lai stubbornly adheres to the separatist position of Taiwan independence, while publicly proclaiming himself as a pragmatic advocate of Taiwan independence. China firmly opposes Lai’s transit in the U.S. in any form or under any pretext and firmly opposes any form of official interaction between the U.S. and Taiwan.
China will definitely take countermeasures in response to Vice President Lai’s transit in the U.S. However, the level of countermeasures will be decided by whether Vice President Lai meets or unexpectedly runs into U.S. policy-making officials during his stopover. Therefore, the author estimates that China will respond with tangible actions that are irreversible and more specific than deterrence based on analyzing China’s past moves, including military actions against Taiwan in August 2022 and combat readiness patrols and the United Sharp Sword exercises in April 2023.
1.Set the tone:
China first designated Vice President Lai as a separatist advocating Taiwan independence and set a tone of contradictions between China and its enemy from the original contradictions among the people.
2.Cognitive warfare:
Use the internet, self-media and TikTok to share misinformation and fake news to create chaos, contradictions and confrontations in the society.
3.Cyberattack:
Deploy hacker groups, Network Systems Department under the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Strategic Support Force, technical reconnaissance base of the Eastern Theater Command to attack Taiwan’s power plants, security trading systems etc.
4.Diplomatic warfare:
(1)No response to the invitation of the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken extended to his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi to visit the U.S.;
(2)No response to whether a summit between Biden and Xi Jinping will be held in November;
(3)Continue to reiterate the one China principle and the Three Communiqués between the US and China in the international community;
(4)Impose sanctions on U.S. organizations and individuals that held reception for Vice President Lai;
(5)Continue to poach diplomatic allies from Taiwan.
5. Trade war:
(1)Ban Taiwan’s exports of some seafood and agricultural products to China with the excuse of quarantine;
(2)Conduct inspections and tax investigations on Taiwanese companies doing business in China.
6. Actions against Taiwan
(1)Impose sanctions on Vice President Lai and his families;
(2)Raise taxes on DPP supports investing in China;
(3)Launch a special operation of joint patrols and inspections in the waters off northern Taiwan, Matsu and Kinmen. Send patrol vessels to conduct onboard inspections of passing ships to demonstrate that the waters surrounding Taiwan is a part of China’s territory;
(4)China’s Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People's Congress, TAO, Ministry of National Defense, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and embassy in the U.S. churned out comments within one day. These five Chinese organs emphasized that the U.S. disregarded China’s solemn representations and repeated warning and allowed Vice President Lai to stop over in the U.S. This seriously violates the one China principle and the Three Joint Communiqués and gravely undermined China's sovereignty and territorial integrity;
(5)Incite (and pay for) overseas Chinese in the U.S. to protest outside the hotel where Vice President Lai stays during his transit;
(6)Announce the discovery of Taiwanese spy cases.
7. Military actions
(1)Conduct joint combat readiness patrols in the air and at sea surrounding Taiwan;
(2)Hold joint military exercises in the air and at sea surrounding Taiwan. Send PLA ships and fighter jets to area within 24 nautical miles of Taiwan’s coast (contiguous zone) and compress Taiwan's line of defense to area within 12 nautical miles.
(3)Send the Shandong Carrier Strike Group and Type-055 guided-missile destroyers to the West Pacific to conduct “anti-access/area denial” operations;
(4)Conduct large-scale landing exercises on Fujian’s Dongshan Island and in Guangdong;
(5)Multiple roll-on-roll-off (ro-ro) ships operated by the Bohai Ferry Group sail to the south to participate in force projection drills in landing exercises;
(6)Army aviation brigade and air assault brigade of the Eastern and Western Theater Commands carry out large batches of maritime training.
（Tai-yuan Yang, Contract Research Fellow of the Institute of Chinese Communist Studies）
(Translated to English by Cindy Li)
