2023 has seen frequent joint military exercises surrounding the South China Sea. The U.S. continues to get involved in the South China Sea affairs with its Indo-Pacific strategy. It invited leaders of Japan and South Korea to Camp David for a trilateral summit recently, forging a strong front in military and economic security. The U.S. also intends to transform the QUAD into a military alliance through the annual Malabar joint exercise. China’s governance of the South China Sea now focuses more on increasing maritime law enforcement and the exercise of jurisdiction. In view of this, the Biden administration continues to put forward more sophisticated policies and measures to create a strategic fault line in the South China Sea and urge surrounding countries to choose sides between the two camps.
Clashes between Chinese coast guard boats and Philippine resupply boats and ships have intensified in waters near the Second Thomas Shoal in recent months. The Commander of the U.S. Navy's Seventh Fleet Vice Admiral Karl Thomas said on August 26th that “China's ‘aggressive behavior’ in the South China Sea must be challenged and checked.” The U.S. army will provide backing to encounter shared challenges in the region. Citing a confrontation between China and the Philippines near the Second Thomas Shoal on August 5th, Thomas further emphasized that “my forces are out here for a reason.”
How will clashes near the Second Thomas Shoal affect bilateral relations between China and the Philippines under the Ferdinand Marcos Jr. government? Is there a chance that the current situation will come to an end? The Philippine government announced the appointment of its Ambassador to the UK and former Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. as Special Envoy of the President to China on August 16th, sending certain diplomatic signals. Does this imply that Manila has changed its policy toward China and is willing to conduct dialogue with China over South China Sea disputes?
When Marcos Jr. took office as the Philippine president and led a delegation to China for a state visit in early 2023, he met with Chinese leaders Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang and Li Zhanshu. After the in-person diplomacy, the two countries released a joint statement and fourteen agreements on January 5th. They agreed to establish a direct communications channel between their foreign ministries on the South China Sea issue to handle disputes peacefully and strengthen economic cooperation. It was obvious that both sides wished to mend their strained relations after the South China Sea arbitration in 2016.
However, the Marcos Jr. administration has agreed to grant the U.S. military access to five bases since February. After the U.S.-Philippines 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in early April, Manila allowed U.S. access to four more sites, including the Camilo Osias Naval Base, which is only about 400 kilometers away from Taiwan. It is situated at the choke points of the Taiwan Strait and the Bashi Channel and controls the key route entering and exiting the South China Sea. U.S. fighter jets will be deployed at the Basa Air Base in the future. Consequently, the U.S. military force projection will cover southern Taiwan.
Moreover, the Philippines has continued to hold exercises in different forms with the U.S., Japan and Australia since June. The PH-Aus Exercise Alon 2023, an amphibious assault exercise starting on August 14th, was the first bilateral landing exercise between the Philippines and Australia in the South China Sea with 2,400 participants. Air support was provided by the U.S. military. The naval base at San Antonio in the Province of Zambales in northern Philippines was deliberately chosen as the location of the exercise. Marcos Jr. traveled to the site to inspect the exercise. The naval base at San Antonio is located about 240 kilometers east of the Scarborough Shoal. The above trilateral simulated island-seizure operation and the joint exercise between U.S. and Philippine troops in waters around the Scarborough Shoal in April send a strong warning signal to China that the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty will be activated if a conflict erupts on the Second Thomas Shoal. The U.S. military will also help its Philippine counterparts to regain control of the Scarborough Shoal.
Based on the game theory, a suasion game refers to one that the two parties compete with asymmetrical strength. Great powers have more coercive power and access to information to achieve their most desired results due to asymmetries in power, interests and information between state actors. Power asymmetry advantage is what motivates great powers to persuade or threaten other parties into cooperation and win prestige for themselves because small countries in the game care more about real economic interests. The significance of the latest Second Thomas Shoal incident is that it prompts the Philippines to make a decision to move closer to the military bloc consisting of the U.S., Japan and Australia as it crosses the fault line of strategic competition between China and the U.S. in the South China Sea. It means that China may gradually lose its power asymmetry advantage in the South China Sea with the involvement of third party forces. It is highly probable that the Philippines (or other claimant countries in the South China Sea) will take an increasingly strong position on China. If China fails to persuade the Marcos Jr. administration with greater economic incentives, confrontation between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea will continue. Consequently, Teodoro Locsin Jr. will especially focus on diplomatic negotiations in his capacity as the Special Envoy of President Marcos Jr. to China.
(Weihua Chen, Associate Professor of the Department of Public Security at Central Police University)
(Translated to English by Cindy Li)
