The biggest take that we get from the recent expansion of the BRICS summit in South Africa is that the U.S., a marine power, is trying to attack China diplomatically from Asia and Europe by land and sea, while China, a land power, is defending itself against the U.S. diplomatic offense and at the same time has made a major breakthrough in the Middle East and Africa, which has created a gap in the Biden administration's grand strategy of encircling China.
The "Three Worlds Theory" is to unite the Second World (developed economies except the US) and the Third World (Asia, Africa and Latin America) against the First World the US, but its essence is to unite the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America against the Western imperialism centered on capitalism in the United States. Nowadays, the U.S. and the Second World are still united by values and ideologies, but the Russian-Ukrainian war has undermined Europe’s political and economic clout, and at the same time, it also highlights the conflict of economic and trade interests between the U.S. and Western European powers. For example, the Biden administration's promotion of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has made the Western European powers, such as France and Germany, feel threatened, and the Western countries' strategy towards China has changed from "delinking" to "derisking" after the Hiroshima G7 summit, which also indicates that there is a contradiction in the strategy of the U.S. and the Western European countries toward China, especially France is unwilling to sacrifice its own economic and trade interests in favor of extreme pressure on the U.S. to decouple from China's economy.
The recent expansion of the BRICS from five to the eleven countries demonstrates that the "Three Worlds Theory" put forward by Mao Zedong in the 1960s is taking shape, and that the world dominated by the West since World War II is on the verge of collapsing, which may be unexpected by the Biden administration. It also reveals a major flaw in the new century strategy promoted by U.S. National Security advisor Jake Sullivan. The U.S. has focused too much on inducing Russia to start a war against Ukraine so as to shape a new Cold War, to regain leadership in the democratic camp, and even to try to drive a wedge between China and Russia. The result was an unexpected acceleration of de-dollarization and a tilt of the Middle East oil producers towards BRICS. The fact that Middle Eastern oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Iran account for half of the six new BRICS members underscores the Middle East's greatly elevated international political status as a counterweight to the U.S.-China rivalry for world hegemony. No wonder the Voice of America (VOA) warned the West that "with the addition of six new BRICS countries, the world order is about to be reshuffled. In addition, Nihon Keizai in its editorial warns that five of the six countries are located in the Middle East and Africa. China's intention to expand its influence in a region where U.S. leadership has waned is evident. There are concerns that Iran's membership will strengthen the anti-Western character of the BRICS.
In fact, the late US global strategic guru Zbigniew Brzezinski in his famous masterpiece "The Great Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives," called on the West to be careful not to let the three land powers, China, Russia, and Iran, join together, or it would be a nightmare for the Western world dominated by the marine powers. Nevertheless, Sullivan turned a deaf ear to his call, and in his eagerness to gain short-term political profits, he ignored the long-term strategic interests that would have far-reaching consequences. As a result, the United States is being plunged into an unprecedentedly serious diplomatic crisis, confronting militarily mighty Russia and economically rising China plus Iran now.
On the whole, the grand chessboard remains relatively balanced at this moment, given the Sino-US strategic tit-for-tat and the global leadership competition. China under Xi Jinpin is partially successful in its pursuit of Mao’s Three Worlds Theory, while the US under Joe Biden has been able to maintain leadership in the West. However, the accidental acceleration of de-dollarization and the tilt of the Middle East oil producers towards BRICS has made the US sigh that "what is lost in the East is gained in the West". The consequence of this loss can not be underestimated. The Biden administration has to work out a demache to counter China’s diplomatic advancement in the Third World as soon as possible.
（Adjunct Professor of Diplomacy and Director,Center for WTO Studies College of International Affairs National Chengchi University To-hai Liou, PhD）
