(Hsien-Sen Lin, Professor, Department of East Asian Studies, National Taiwan Normal University)
Premier Li Qiang of China, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan, and President Yoon Suk-yeol of South Kore gathered in Seoul attending the 9th trilateral summit of the three countries on May 26-27, five years after the 8th summit held in Chengdu, China. During the 3rd “ASEAN+3” summit, attended by the leaders of 10 ASEAN countries and heads of three major Asian economies, the then Premier Zhu Rongji of China, Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi of Japan and President Kim Dae-jung of South Korea in Manila on November 28, 1999, Prime Minister Obuchi proposed to hold a China-Japan-South Korea breakfast summit for the first time taking the advantage of the ASEAN summit. Ever since, the trilateral summit has been held annually at the event of “ASEAN+3” summit.
When the 11th “ASEAN+3” summit was held is Singapore on 20 November 2007, the three countries decided to detach themselves from the “ASEAN+3” to host the trilateral summit in rotation from the next year so as to increase cooperation among the three sides. The first summit was held in Fukuoka by Japan on December 8, 2008, marking the first step of building regional cooperation in Northeast Asia. A secretariat, approved by the three sides, was established in Seoul in September 2011 subsequently. The secretariat is headed by a secretary-general and two deputy secretaries-general appointed by the three parties in rotation every two years. The secretariat takes care of matters related to the trilateral summit, ASEAN+3 summit, ministerial meetings, and practical level meetings. However, after the 5th meeting held in Beijing in May 2012, the summit was suspended in 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017 due to dispute over the sovereignty of Diaoyutai (Senkaku) Islands between China and Japan as well as sovereign dispute over Dokdo/Takeshima and the issue of comfort woman between Japan and South Korea. The summit was resumed in December 2019 but suspended again because of COVID-19 pandemic.
After the pandemic, South Korea, as the rotating host, has actively prepared for the restart of the summit. A source from the South Korea presidential office revealed to Japanese media that the stability of South Korea-the US-Japan relations has made South Korea more confident when facing China. On the other hand, Japan and South Korea have successively strengthened alliance defense cooperation with the US, which might physically turn the trilateral structure of “China and South Korea versus Japan” since 2012 into “Japan and South Korea versus China.” China therefore has kept a passive attitude toward the resumption of trilateral summit. Then, it might be because of the needs of its own economic development as well as a strategic approach to win over Japan and South Korea through economic cooperation so as to weaken US pressure in technology and trade disputes, China then changed its attitude and agreed to have its Foreign Minister Wang Yi attend the foreign-minister meeting of the three sides held in Busan on November 26 last year (203), preparing for the resumption of the summit.
South Korea intended to restart the Summit in the end of last year, but China postponed it to the current schedule in response to Taiwan presidential election in January and National People’s Congress (NPC) and Chinese Peoples’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) in March. In the above-mentioned foreign ministerial meeting, Wang Yi stated that the three countries must uphold the advocacy of mutual benefits and win-win approach to restart the negotiation of free trade agreement (FTA) among China, Japan and South Korea as soon as possible, maintaining momentum of regional economic integration.”
It highlights Chin’s focus on economy, trying to complete China-Japan-South Korea FTA and weakening the cooperation of the US-Japan-South Korea alliance. Wang Wenbin, spokesman of China’s Foreign Ministry, expressed in a press conference before Li Qiang leaving for South Korea that China is looking forward to deepening cooperation in economy and trade, technology and culture, and promoting economic integration in East Asia, which reveals China’s game strategy in economics.
In fact, at the time when the US and China are engaging in strategic competition, and the reginal security in Northeast Asia is increasingly intense, the resumption of the trilateral summit itself is an achievement. From the perspective of the three sides, the highlight of this summit is to restart the FTA negotiation. China, Japan and South Korea account for 20% of global population and nearly 25% of world GDP, making the 3-side FTA significant in global economy. From China’s stance, the FTA could deepen economic and trade ties among the three countries, which not only helps introduce investments from Japanese and Korea enterprises, but also builds a firewall between the US-Japan-South Korea alliance and China. In a congressional election in April, South Korea “Democratic Party of Korea (DPK)”, a leftist opposition party, won nearly 70% of the seats, which is advantageous for China to win over the opposition force with economic and trade issues while containing President Yoon Suk-yeol’s pro-US and -Japan policy on issues of foreign affairs and defense. China also keeps the similar economic game strategy toward Japan. Premier Li Qiang therefore explicitly expressed his hope that this summit could be a new starting point for development of trilateral relations.
On the other hand, from the stands of Japan and South Korea, both countries truly hope to maintain economic and trade cooperation with China but there are concerns about China’s weaponization of economic interdependence, leading to economic coercion; the withdrawal of foreign investments because of US-China technology and trade wars; and the slow recovery of China’s economy. Thus, Chinese market is not as attractive as it used to be, indicating a limited effect of China’s economic and diplomacy game through this summit. In addition, Japan and South Korea have adopted economic security measures to avoid over-dependence on China, and both countries have joined the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) led by the US, signing the Supply Chain Pact, while being willing to resume close economic and trade relations with China
With improved relations between Japan and South Korea and the building of a US-Japan-South Korea defense mechanism, both Japan and South Korea are more confident in dialogue with China on issues of diplomacy and security. For Japan and South Korea, North Korea’s nuclear development is a shared security concern. Given that China might not want to see a nuclear Korean Peninsula, China has become one of the bargaining chips to prevent the nuclearization of North Korea. However, when the leaders of Japan and South Korea mentioned about North Korea’s recent preparations for launching a satellite-carrying rocket in violation of UN Security Council resolution, Premier Li Qiang remained silent without responding and instead he expressed displeasure at their strengthening defense cooperation with the US as an alliance.
Furthermore, in the China-Japan bilateral meeting on the afternoon of the 26th, Prime Minister Kishida expressed concerns over China’s recent military exercise on locking down Taiwan again, while Premier Li Qiang reiterated scripted expression that Taiwan issue is the “core of core interests” as well as a “red line” for China. Kishida also requested China to cease declaring sovereignty around the waters of Senkaku Islands, to lift ban on importing Japanese aquatic products due to the Fukushima nuclear wastewater discharge, and to immediately release the arrested Japanese staff on espionage charges but Li turned them down diplomatically. On the other hand, China and South Korea have agreed to establish a new “China-South Korea Diplomatic Security Dialogue,” attended by deputy foreign ministers and bureau-level defense officials from both sides. It would be a China-South Korea “2+2” dialogue mechanism and is scheduled to hold the first meeting in mid-June. Besides, it will activate the China-South Korea 1.5-track dialogue and exchange mechanism at an appropriate time
Since President Xi Jinping controls over the power structure in Zhongnanhai, there are doubts about Li Qiang’s power in making economic decisions, and it remans to be seen if the economic and trade consensuses reached in the trilateral summit can be implemented. In South Korea, the Yoon Suk-yeol government is constrained by a strong opposition party domestically, that tends to keep a “distance from the US, anti-Japan,” and the US former President Donal Trump would probably return to White House. All the facts have prompted South Korea to start the second phase negotiation of the China-South Korea FTA in service trade and a new “South Korea-China Export Control Dialogue Mechanism” is also established to increase supply chain cooperation, showing a tendency to actively improve relations with China. And, there is a deficit in the 2023 trade with China, the first time in 31 years, it would be the top priority of the Yoon Suk-yeol government to strengthen bilateral trade with China. Yoon Suk-yeol had remained silent on the security issue of the Taiwan Strait brought up by Prime Minister Kishida to Li Qiang, and he didn’t send any representative to the inauguration of President Lai Ching-te, probably attempting to please China for better relations. In summary, South Korea’s future policy toward China, particularly if the leftists return to power in two years, will influence the direction of the trilateral summit as well as the recently emerging power structure of the “US-Japan-South Korea versus China-Russia-North Korea.”
（Translated to English by Tracy Chou）
