（Chun-wei Ma, Assistant Professor of the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University）
President Lai Ching-te's inaugural speech on May 20th basically continued the direction of former President Tsai Ing-wen's China policy with her four commitments as the main theme while adding the four pillars rolled out during his election campaign.
In terms of content, there is no surprise. But in regard to expression, President Lai candidly focused on the second point of Tsai's four commitments, i.e., "the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China should not be subordinate to each other." This has led China to believe that the cross-strait situation is heating up.
When former President Tsai delivered her inaugural speech in 2016, she said that cross-strait affairs will be conducted “in accordance with the Republic of China Constitution, the Act Governing Relations Between the People of Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area,” the “historical fact” of “the 1992 talks between the two institutions representing each side across the Strait (SEF & ARATS)” and “joint acknowledgement of setting aside differences to seek common ground.” However, her goodwill remarks—an implicit version of the 1992 Consensus—was not accepted by China. Cross-strait relations started a sharp downward spiral and stagnated over the past eight years. Apart from intimidating rhetoric and sabre rattling, China had no better means to win over people in Taiwan. This in effect undermined China’s efforts to deepen integrated development with Taiwan.
China may have recognized its previous failure. Beijing accordingly adopted a more prudent approach in response to President Lai's speech this time. In terms of the responding time of the Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO), the agency spent two more hours in formulating its response compared to its responding time after former President Tsai's inaugural speech in 2020. In addition, China must have been ready to launch military exercises at any time. It was only a matter of deciding whether or when to launch them. China could have immediately conducted exercises with the excuse of protesting Lai's speech on the following day of May 20. But related exercises were postponed to May 23. This demonstrated that China had adopted more cautious thinking and actions than before. It also reflected the current dilemma facing China: whether it should bite the bullet and pursue cross-strait relations or indiscriminately suppress Taiwan?
China’s Joint Sword-2024A military exercise surrounding Taiwan only lasted two days, shorter than the three-day military exercise after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022 or the six-day military exercise surrounding Taiwan in response to Tsai’s meeting with former US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy during her transit through Los Angeles in April 2023. In addition, live-fire drills were conducted during the two previous military exercises, while no such drills were included in the latest military exercise surrounding Taiwan.
These developments reveal that China has suspended the tactic of maximum pressure despite its intention to exert pressure on Taiwan through military exercises. A few possible reasons are listed below.
1. Despite a more abrasive tone, President Lai's speech did not deviate from his predecessor’s cross-strait policy line. He essentially continues her policy. Directly exerting an escalated degree of maximum military pressure would exceed the principle of proportionality.
2. China does not have political trust in President Lai. Should Beijing escalate its military exercises to the highest level, it will face difficulty in deciding the intensity of intimidating military exercises if Lai makes more provocative moves.
3. China’s current Taiwan policy still focuses on peaceful reunification. Conducting united front work through exchanges is still the best policy. If Beijing completely cuts off exchanges with Taiwan for the next four years simply because of Lai’s speech on May 20 may result in four more years of no progress toward achieving its goal of integrating Taiwan into China. Avoiding extreme actions will create space for later development.
4. China’s public opinion may have been boiling since May 20. A more restrained military exercise would calm domestic sentiments and reduce backlash from Taiwan.
An overview of China’s previous military exercises surrounding Taiwan shows that the sense of threat inevitably spread to neighboring countries even though China’s deterrence targeted against Taiwan. As the area of China’s military exercises simultaneously affected Okinawa and Luzon, Japan and the Philippines were prompted to strengthen military cooperation with the United States. It is believed that momentum to counter China through cooperation between peripheral countries will increase in the wake of the latest exercise.
Moreover, before and after China's military drills surrounding Taiwan in August 2022, aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan of the US Seventh Fleet appeared near Taiwan. A US destroyer, USS Milius, passed through the Taiwan Strait soon after China’s military exercise surrounding Taiwan in April 2023.The United States may presumably also take targeted military actions in response in the next few days.
First appeared in the United Daily News on May 24, 2024
（Translated to English by Cindy Li）
