（Yang Tai-yuan, Contract Research Fellow, Institute of Chinese Communist Studies）
Gray zone tactics refers to the practice of aggressive deterring actions that lie above day-to-day diplomacy but below the threshold of war. The RAND Corporation defines gray zone tactics as such: 1. It is below the threshold of legality or legitimacy of military countermeasures; 2. Salami slicing tactics; 3. Actions that are difficult to trace; 4. The legitimizing one’s own actions under legal and political pretexts; 5. Non-threatening to the defender’s vital interests; 6. Bluffing to avoid war; 7. Non-military tactics and quasi-military pressures; and 8. Alienation of ethnic groups within the target country. By definition, gray zone tactics is a diverse means to provoke.
In recent years, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been carrying out gray zone tactics in the waters around Taiwan, which include the following activities: the presence of maritime militia vessels near Orchid Island and other waters, the breakage of submarine cables in the outer islands, the intrusion of unmanned aerial vehicles, the frequent activities of scientific research vessels, the intrusion of Armed Police Force and Coast Guard vessels into the prohibited and restricted areas, the stationing of naval vessels on a regular basis, conducting various training exercises, conducting missile strike drills and the designation of a live-fire zone near the outer islands.
In addition to illegal fishing, maritime militia vessels also collect intelligence, conduct observation and surveillance, drive away Taiwanese fishing vessels and interfere with their operations, and even encircle Taiwan’s outlying islands in groups to prevent the replenishment of supplies. The submarine cables connecting the outlying islands to Taiwan were also maliciously dragged and cut, resulting in a prolonged disconnection and loss of communication, which aroused dissatisfaction among the islands’ residents. The unmanned aerial vehicles have intruded into the outlying islands to take photographs and drop propaganda with the intention of humiliating and ridiculing the Taiwanese Army in the hope of causing dissatisfaction among Taiwanese citizens. Chinese scientific research vessels, under the guise of the Ministry of Natural Resources, cooperate with the military in their operations. This year, the number of their activities has increased dramatically, in particular, they have been sailing southward along the 12 nautical mile line all the way from Pengjia Islet, north of Taiwan, to the vicinity of Su’ao Port, where they have turned around and left at 24 nautical miles, clearly targeting the northeastern waters of Taiwan to conduct submarine hydrological surveys. The intrusion of the Armed Police Force and Coast Guard vessels into the prohibited and restricted waters of the outlying islands is intended to highlight law enforcement and sovereignty in a salami-slicing manner. In particular, their activities in the eastern waters of Taiwan during the recent “Joint Sword-2024A”military exercise were intended to demonstrate the latest 2023 version of China’s national map that establishes the 10-dash line in the South China Sea in lieu of the previous 9-dash line. The 10-dash line on the eastern side of Taiwan was chosen for this military exercise, with the aim of establishing control and sovereignty over the line. Naval vessels are stationed in the waters around Taiwan on a regular basis, conduct various training and exercises in the waters around Taiwan, carry out missile strike drills in the waters around Taiwan, and a live-fire zone is designated near the outlying islands, all with the aim of exerting military pressure on Taiwan, and to stimulate people’s will to change.
In short, the PLA, having evaluated the effectiveness of gray zone tactics, is likely to continue with and expand its application. In addition to the surrounding waters, it will also carry out all kinds of gray zone tactics in Taiwan’s airspace, by deploying PLA’s Information Support Force and Cyberspace Force to continuously launch cyber attacks and intelligence gathering on our critical infrastructure, military facilities, health care system, military medical system, and other institutions, and make use of the Internet and various audiovisual platforms to disseminate videos of its cognitive warfare to influence the perceptions of the viewing public. For China, gray zone tactics is the cheapest means of dealing with Taiwan. Not only does it use physical military pressure and deterrence, it also uses the three wars (legal, public opinion, and psychological), promotion for reunification, and cognitive warfare to increase the effect of gray zone tactics. Therefore, the communist army’s gray zone tactics is undergoing qualitative and quantitative changes, creating new patterns, which may affect and change the perception of Taiwanese citizens unknowingly. In-depth research on the ways and methods of PLA’s gray zone tactics should be conducted to come up with countermeasures against them.
（Translated to English by Chen Cheng-Yi）
