(Fang Tien-sze, Associate Professor, Center of General Education/ Associate Director of India Center, National Tsing Hua University)
India Prime Minister Narendra Modi went on an official visit to Russia from July 8-9, 2024, for the 22nd India-Russia Summit with Russia President Vladimir Putin and a side visit to Austria. This is Modi’s second Russia visit after 2019. What is more noteworthy is that this is also Modi’s first visit to Russia after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, thus attracting a lot of attention from the international community.
The main achievements of Modi’s visit include the signing of 9 agreements and MOUs, and the issuance of an 81-point joint statement on “Enduring and Expanding Partnership,” which encompasses a wide range of political issues between the two countries to show their will to deepen cooperation. In fact, India and Russia have been holding annual summits since 2000 and elevated their bilateral relations to a special and privileged strategic partnership in 2010. However, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Modi postponed his visit to Russia. The decision now to resume the visit and organize the Indo-Russian Summit has its strategic considerations.
First, India wants to secure energy supplies from Russia. In a pre-departure statement before the Russian trip, Modi talked about the Indo-Russian strategic partnership that has been growing over the past 10 years, and covered areas such as energy, security, and trade. In Modi’s remarks, the prioritized area of cooperation was energy. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, India did not join the sanctions imposed by Europe and the US on Russia, but purchased large quantities of cheap Russian crude oil, and after refining it, resold some of it to Europe and the US. India is very proud of this and believes that this has helped stabilize the international oil market. In the joint statement, the two sides mentioned the special importance of continued energy trading and agreed to discuss new long-term contracts. For India, inexpensive Russian oil is essential for the development of its economy, and it is therefore hoped that Russia will be able to supply it at favorable prices on a long-term basis. In addition, India hopes to strengthen nuclear energy cooperation with Russia, including the construction of new nuclear power plants.
India’s second consideration is China. Despite India’s traditional and historical ties with Russia, Russia has become increasingly dependent on China for its support in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Due to tensions between India and China and the Pakistan factor, Modi was absent from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana, Kazakhstan. However, as Putin hailed China-Russia relations as “the best ever” at the summit, it reflects a shift of gravity in the trilateral relationship between China, India, and Russia. Even if India cannot prevent Russia from developing closer ties with China, it needs to avoid Russia’s complete reversal to China in their trilateral relationship. Therefore, India needs to expand the scope of Russia-India cooperation, so that Russia can still have other options for cooperation besides China. This is to ensure that Russia can at least maintain its goodwill and neutrality in future China-India conflicts.
Hence, in his pre-departure statement, Modi described Putin as “my friend.” While meeting overseas Indians, Modi called Russia as India’s “sukh-dukh ka saathi (friend in happiness and sorrow)” and “bharosemand dost (trustworthy friend).” Putin, on the other hand, invited Modi to his mansion outside Moscow for a private meeting, followed by the presentation of Russia’s highest civilian honor, the Order of St. Andrew the Apostle the First-Called, to Modi the next day in recognition of his contribution to India-Russia relations. Through these interactions, the two sides have deliberately sought to emphasize the special importance their relations.
The third purpose of Modi’s trip is to demonstrate diplomatic autonomy. India is a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), and US-India relations have been heating up with the Chinese expansion and the Indo-Pacific Strategy, but India has never been interested in forming an alliance with the US, and wants to maintain its diplomatic independence and autonomy. In May of this year, India signed an agreement with Iran to develop the port of Chabahar despite US opposition. When the leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) gathered in Washington, D.C., on July 9, Modi embraced Putin in Moscow, demonstrating that India has no intention of taking orders from the US.
But Modi also tried to convince the West that he did not support Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine. In the bilateral meeting, Modi made it clear to Putin that “solutions are not possible on the battleground” and that “will have to follow the peace path only through talks.” Meanwhile, Putin did not actually stop the military offensive when he praised Modi’s peace efforts. During Modi’s visit, a Ukrainian children’s hospital was hit by Russian missiles, and resulted in deaths and injuries. Although Modi expressed his grief, he did not publicly blame Russia for the attack, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy then took to social media to criticize the situation, saying, “It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world's largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day.” Zelenskyy’s criticism also suggests that India’s position on Ukraine is actually biased.
Modi’s visit to Russia also symbolizes that the economic isolation of Russia by the US and Europe is not working. Russia’s trade with India has grown by a whopping 66% in the last year, with bilateral trade now exceeding $65 billion, long ahead of the original target of $30 billion by 2025. During the visit, the two sides set a new target of $100 billion in trade by 2030, completely ignoring calls from the West to impose economic sanctions on Russia. At the end of his trip to Russia, Modi’s plane flew directly from Moscow to Europe, a rare occurrence after the Russo-Ukrainian war, reflecting to some extent the special nature and effectiveness of Indian diplomacy.
On the whole, the warming of India-Russia relations can help India’s internal economic development, balance the China-Russia relationship, and serve as a bargaining chip for India’s negotiation with the West. It is India’s diplomatic inclination to occupy a pivotal position in bloc politics, rather than betting on a particular party. What is seldom noticed is that the ambassadors of the US, Japan, India, Australia (QUAD members states) actually met in Beijing on the day of Modi’s visit to Russia, in a deliberate gesture of subtle balance. In the face of complex geopolitical changes, India will be adjusting sensitively its diplomatic behavior to maintain its advantageous position.
（Translated to English by Chen Cheng-Yi）
