(Chao Chun-Shan, Honorary Profess, Tamkang University)
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), Xi Jinping has reiterated the concept of “strategic focus” which has become a significant essence of “Xi Jinping though of socialism with Chinese characteristics in new era.” According to the interpretations of Chinese official medias, it means “firmly adhering to ones’ course, not fearing various risks, and resolutely advancing toward established strategic goals.” “Strategic focus” derives from “strategic self-confidence” while “strategic capability” is the basis of “strategic self-confidence.”
Both economy and military are “hard power” to realize national strategic objectives. The recently concluded Third Plenary Session of the CPC 20th Central Committee (referred as the Third Plenary Session) focused on discussing how to get China emerge from its economic downturn. The communique of the Third Plenary Session claimed that “it is essential to ensure that high-quality development and greater security reinforce each other.” According to the comments of the New York Times, “this meeting suggests that Chinese leaders want to find a more delicate balance between national security and economic growth.”
China believes that its external security threats are mainly from the strategic containment imposed by the US. Baiden’s quitting from the re-election campaign “has created a stir before the show” and it could increase Trump’s odds to win. And Trump’s possible return to power might influence the China-US relation after the election.
The South China Sea and The Taiwan Strait are the most dangerous regions for potential military conflicts between China and the US. In Trump’s presidency, an incident occurred in the South China Sea where Chinese and US naval destroyers nearly collided. The Trump administration had exercised “Freedom of Navigation Operations” in the South China Sea far more frequently than the preceded Obama administration.
After Baiden took office, he has actively drawn in ASEAN countries including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia, the primary claimants of sovereignty over the South China Sea, to promote Indo-Pacific Strategy. In recent months, the vessels of China and the Philippines have been playing “cat and mouse games” in the disputed waters
The “Taiwan issue” has been the core of dispute between China and the US, and it seems that neither side is willing to make concessions. Baiden has intensified substantive relationship with Taiwan, specially focusing on providing arms and personnel trainings to Taiwan. There is no formal alliance between Taiwan and the US, but Baiden has regarded “democracy Taiwan” as a “quasi-ally” when assessing the US-China competition as a struggle of democracy and dictatorship in the 21st century.
However, Trump seems to view the Taiwan-US relationship as a bottomless “money transaction.” In an interview with the Bloomberg Businessweek, he complained that Taiwan took the US chip business, and that Taiwan should pay the US for defense. Trump claimed that he was capable of ending the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Palestine conflicts and that after winning the election, he would avoid getting entangled in the Taiwan Strait conflict, thus preventing the U.S. from being caught in one trouble after another with the difficulty of fighting on three fronts.
Trump’s unpredictable style and transactional foreign policy would surely worry his allies that may wonder if they would become his bargaining chips to exchange interests with Beijing. But experts of China’s think tank believe that the consensus recached by Baiden and Xi Jinping in San Francisco on “risk control and prevention of accidental military conflict” will temporarily lead to a “strategic alleviation” in China-US strategic competition.
The idea of “avoiding war” has eased China-US relation, but Trump’s aim to “make America great again” and Xi Jinping’s pursuing “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” will make both shift their competitive focus to the field of economy. Because having sufficient capabilities allows one to demonstrate composure when facing geopolitical conflict of interests.
(Translated to English by Tracy Chou)