(Shih-Hui Li, Professor, College of International Affairs, National Chengchi University)
Fumio Kishida became Japan’s 100th Prime Minister in September 2021. As his term as the President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is about to end, Kishida announced on August 14, 2024, that he would not run for the presidency of the LDP again and would step down from the post of Prime Minister in September. For the past six months, Kishida has kept an ambiguous stance on whether to run for the reelection of the LDP leader. The main reason is that there are two issues to be addressed.
First, the approval rate of the cabinet has remained low. According to a poll made by NHK through randomly computer-generated fixed line and mobile phone numbers, targeting at respondents over 18 years of age in Japan from August 2-3, 25% of the respondents supported Kishida’s cabinet, while 55% disapproved. Among the reasons for disapproval, 43% noting “no expectations for policies,” 27% “lack of execution ability,” and 11% “other cabinets seem better.”
Second, Kishida is unable to gain supports from main factions within the party. Under the pressure of political donation scandal, all major factions, except for the Aso faction, inside the LDP have announced dissolution or suspension of operations. Despite this, the previous faction leaders have maintained a certain level of influence; however, important faction leaders such as Taro Aso and Toshimitsu Motegi have not expressed supports for Kishida since August.
The poll results also suggested that the most desired political issue to be discussed in the LDP president election is “economic measures.” In other words, the low support rate for Kishida cabinet is mainly because of the public’s lack of expectations for the economic measures. Even though economic figures have shown good performance in stock markets and wages, inflation has impacted the real lives of Japanese people. From this perspective, the Bank of Japan’s two consecutive interest rate hikes may have political considerations. With the cabinet’s approval rate remaining low and unable to gain supports from the main factions of the Party, Kishida therefore decided to give up the reelection of the LDP leader and to exert his influence (Kishida faction) instead, transforming from a “king” to a “kingmaker.”
Currently, there are seven people who have expressed intentions to run for the presidency of the LDP directly or indirectly. With so many candidates, a “kingmaker” competition is about to emerge among the retiring Fumio Kishida (the current president and former leader of Kishida faction), Taro Aso (the current vice president and leader of Aso faction), and Yoshihide Suga (former prime minister). A further analysis of the network connections among the LDP Diet members reveals a power competition among main factions, non-main factions and conservative factions. The rise and fall of these three forces influence not only the election of the LDP presidency but also the political and economic situation of Japan.
The main factions include Aso faction, former Kishida faction, the former Tanigaki group (Yurin-kai), and the former Motegi faction. The rivaled non-main factions are made up of members closely associated with Yoshihide Suga, the former Nikai faction, the former Moriyama faction, and the former Ishiba faction. Katsunobu Kato, the former Chief Cabinet Secretary and a former member of the Motegi faction, is closely associated with Yoshihide Suga. The former Abe faction, once the largest faction within the LDP, is now in a state of division due to issues related to political funds and the decreasing influences of its leaders. Its members are generally divided into three groups: one centered on Kōichi Hagiuda, the former Chairman of the Policy Research Council of the LDP, another on Tatsuo Fukuda, the former Chairman of the General Council of the LDP, and a conservative group. Hagiuda is believed to be closely associated with the non-main faction. And the conservative group, gathering members beyond the former Abe faction as a third camp, is leaning towards supporting Sanae Takaichi.
The seven potential candidates for the presidency have their own strengths and weaknesses each, increasing the uncertainty of this election. For instance, Shigeru Ishiba has received frequent media exposure and enjoyed higher popularity with an image of reformist in the public but is not favored by his fellow Diet members. Taro Kono is known for his high public recognition and decisive actions but hasn’t gained the support from kingmaker Taro Aso. Sanae Takaichi has support from conservative members but whether she could obtain recommendation from 20 fellow members of the Diet remains to be observed. In a chaotic situation without powerful candidates, the competition and cooperation among kingmakers increase the possibility of a dark horse candidate to emerge.
The analysis of strengths and weaknesses of potential candidates for the presidency of the LDP is as follows: Toshimitsu Motegi has extensive practical experience but less public popularity; Sanae Takaichi has support from conservative members but uncertain about obtaining the needed endorsements of 20 Diet members; Shigeru Ishiba has high name recognition with an image of reformist but less support from LDP Diet members; Taro Kono is known for high recognition and decisive actions but rivaled with the Aso faction; Takayuki Kobayashi is seen as a hopeful star with a reformist image but has less public recognition and readiness; Seiko Noda has extensive practical experience and no affiliation to any party or faction but uncertain about obtaining the needed endorsements of 20 Diet members; and Shinjirō Koizumi has high name recognition with an image of reformist but lack of experiences.
The new Prime Minister of Japan is about to face two major internal and external challenges. The first is to keep a balance between security concerns and pacifist constitution. Japan’s security environment has become increasingly severe due to the tension among US-Japan alliance, China and Russia. It includes North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats, Russia’s military presence in the Far East, Taiwan-related issues and disputes in the South China Sea. The East Asia regional security confrontation centered on the First Island Chain will continue. As Japan rapidly strengthens its defense capabilities, the new Prime Minister will face the significant challenge of easing domestic concerns about violating Japan’s pacifist constitution.
The second is to keep a balance between economic development and economic security. In the process of competition and confrontation between the US and China, Japan’s semiconductor equipment and materials have become a crucial element. It is because that China has long been the most important market for Japan’s semiconductor equipment and materials while the US remains the most important ally for Japan in terms of security. When the semiconductor industry become crucial for security and economic development, it will be inevitably integrated into the US-Japan overall security and geopolitical strategy. It would be another significant challenge for the new Prime Minister as how to keep a balance between the two.
Notably, in the Japan-Korea-China trilateral summit held in Seoul on May 27 this year, the three countries agreed to promote a free trade agreement (FTA). Currently, China is facing arduous challenges including severe stagnation in domestic demands, a downturn in real estate market and high youth unemployment. The supreme goal of the communist rule in China is to maintain economic development and social stability. Given that there is a limitation in improving economic relations with the US, it has become a priority to enhance economic ties with Japan and Korea. The LDP is facing low approval ratings and public concerns over economic issues in Japan; therefore, it would be critical for Japan’s economic development to engage in both practical and strategic economic negotiations with China.
In summary, regardless of who will be elected as the Prime Minister, it will definitely have a significant impact on Japan’s political and economic situation. For Eastern Asia countries, the new Prime Minister of Japan to be elected in October and the new President of the US to be determined in November are also the most important variables affecting regional politics, economy, and security situation.
（Translated to English by Tracy Chou）
