（To-hai Liou,Adjunct Distinguished Professor of Diplomacy and Director,Center for WTO Studies, College of International Affairs, National Chengchi University）
Over the past more than three years, the Biden administration's grand strategy has been to mold a new Cold War structure of liberal democracy against authoritarianism by negatively interpreting the threat posed by Russia and China to the security of the Indo-Pacific region and Europe, which would unite the liberal democracies and, more importantly, consolidate the U.S. position as the leader of the democratic camp. The Democratic Party's “2024 Platform” is a perfect example of this. Chapter 9 refers to “Strengthening U.S. Global Leadership,” emphasizing continuing to strengthen alliances and partnerships to protect U.S. security and prosperity by ensuring that China cannot threaten neighboring countries or overturn international rules, and saying that even when competing with China, we will continue to manage the relationship responsibly to avoid escalating into a costly conflict. This goal may have been achieved, but its side effects are already being felt.
In 2023, Biden proclaimed that the United States was capable of two wars, but the Russia-Ukrainian war resulted in the second and third most powerful countries in the world, Russia and China, becoming back-to-back allies who could look out for each other and form a team to change the long-standing Western-dominated world order and norms. Now Israel's war with Hamas could extend to a Middle East war between Israel and Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah and Yemeni Houthis. To make matters worse, recent developments seem to be moving closer to the brink of a third world war. The Biden administration is trying to integrate the defense of the North Atlantic Organization (NATO), which was originally targeted at Russia, with the defense of the Indo-Pacific region, in which China is the hypothetical enemy, as its new Cold War strategic layout. As a result, the U.S. is now involved in two wars at the same time, and it is simultaneously fighting against Russia and China and preparing for war with both major powers with nuclear capabilities.
Both the US and Russia are involved in a possible future war in the Middle East. After Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran in July this year, former defense minister and secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu immediately went to Iran to deliver advanced air defense and radar equipment to Iran. The U.S.-China strategic tit-for-tat in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait is also on the rise. Recently, China and Philippine vessels collided near Xianbin Reef, and the U.S. spoke out in support of the Philippines, saying that the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty is applicable to any armed attack in the South China Sea.
Can the U.S. really be as brave as an octopus? In fact, this highlights the fact that the era of U.S. hegemony in the world is over, and these dilemmas faced by the Biden administration will have a decisive impact on the U.S. presidential election in November this year. Another key variable affecting the U.S. presidential election is the economy. Even though the U.S. inflation has dropped to around 2 percent, and the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by one or two yards in coming September, polls have shown that more than 40% of the American people feel that their economic situation has been deteriorating over the past three years or so. The Democrats quickly chose Vice President Kamala Harris as their presidential candidate after Biden announced his withdrawal from the race. Her background as a woman, a young generation leader, and a minority gained her points, which has given her a slight lead over Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in major media polls so far, but Trump has focused his attacks on the plight of the people and on illegal immigrants. The only foreign affairs-related issue Trump mentioned is to blame the Biden administration's bringing of World War III to the U.S. These are burdens of incumbent government that Harris simply cannot avoid as current Vice President.
It is worth noting that the Democratic Party's 2000 party platform deleted the “one-China” policy and only mentioned the “Taiwan Relations Act”, while the “one-China” policy appeared again in this year's party platform. However, the new Democratic Party platform puts Taiwan in the China section instead of the Indo-Pacific section, and for the first time includes the six guarantees that former President Ronald Reagan offered to Taiwan in 1982. On the other hand, the Republican Party included the “six guarantees” in its platform in 2016, but this year's platform focuses primarily on domestic affairs and makes no mention of Taiwan. This is the first time in 40 years that the Republican Party has not declared a position on Taiwan. It is quite surprising that the anti-China movement has become the banner of the Democratic Party, while the Republican Party has undergone changes. If we associate the changes in the Republican Party with recent behavior of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who cooperates with China to produce Tesla electric vehicles (EVs), then we find Trump’s election strategy has obviously adjusted to win the support of the corporate and technology community. Musk has rarely supported Trump this time. He has not only made a huge political donation, but also intends to join the Trump cabinet in the future. Trump has declared that he would offer Elon Musk a Cabinet post in the White House if gets elected this November and now says he is fine with EVs, even if he had concerns about their range. In addition, the new party platforms of both parties in the United States have deleted the phrase “denuclearization of North Korea”, which has caused South Korea to worry that in order to break the stalemate with North Korea, the new U.S. government may negotiate with Kim Jong-un on nuclear disarmament rather than denuclearization. This is tantamount to recognizing North Korea as a nuclear-armed country. In short, if Kamala Harris is victory in the forthcoming US presidential election, there will be limited changes in U.S. foreign policy, but if Trump is elected president, there may be earth-shaking changes.
