(Yang Tai-yuan, Contract Research Fellow, Institute of Chinese Communist Studies)
On September 25, 2024, China’s Ministry of National Defense announced that at 8:44am, the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force had successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) carrying a simulated warhead into the Pacific Ocean, accurately landing in the designated sea areas. According to the flight path published by Chinese media, the missile was launched near Wenchang City, Hainan Province, via a mobile missile truck stationed in a grassy field. After a 27-minute flight, it landed in an uninhabited area of the southern Pacific Ocean near the International Date Line south of Hawaii, covering a distance of about 11,700 km. Before the launch, China had notified the US, Russia, the UK, and France, all permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.
Early models of the Dongfeng-31 ICBM had a launch tube that made rigid contact with the ground using hydraulic jacks, which required preparatory work and limited the adaptability to different terrains. The Dongfeng-31AG, however, uses an advanced suspended launch tube with a self-adjusting, extendable rubber base, allowing for immediate launch on relatively flat surfaces without the need for pre-set launch positions. Photos of the launch released by China show the missile with a “small flat-top” design, featuring a three-stage rocket engine and capabilities for all-terrain, impromptu launches, indicating that the missile launched was indeed the Dongfeng-31AG (confirmed by China on September 26). According to a report by the US Air University’s China Aerospace Studies Institute, it is believed that the 621st Missile Brigade (Unit 96721) of the Rocket Force’s Base 62, located in Yibin, Sichuan Province, was responsible for the launch, having been mobilized to Wenchang, Hainan.
Before this launch, China had only conducted one full-range test of an ICBM, the Dongfeng-5, in May 1980. This missile was launched from Jiuquan in western China and landed near Tuvalu in the South Pacific, covering a distance of about 9,300 km in 30 minutes (Project 580). Since then, China has only conducted tests within its borders, typically launching from Shanxi to a target range in Xinjiang, covering distances of over 3,000 km.
The sudden publicized full-range test of the Dongfeng-31AG ICBM demonstrates China’s intention to showcase its technological prowess in ICBM systems, proving that these systems meet both design and operational requirements. The launch also dispels recent online rumors that the Rocket Force’s ICBM were compromised by officials who allegedly replaced the fuel with water due to corruption. Moreover, Xi Jinping likely intended to use this test to declare the successful reorganization of the Rocket Force, asserting that China’s nuclear arsenal is combat-ready. It is expected that China will conduct more frequent ICBM tests beyond its borders, showcasing its nuclear triad capability.
Through this test, China sought to display the strength of its Rocket Force’s nuclear arsenal. The Dongfeng-31AG has a range of 12,000 km, and even more advanced missiles like the Dongfeng-41, Dongfeng-5B, and JL-3 could potentially exceed ranges of 13,500 km. If launched from central China, these missiles could reach the eastern United States via the Alaska route, effectively giving China the ability to strike all of the US. As it is customary for China not to display its most advanced weapons, it is suggested that the Rocket Force is already equipped with newer, more powerful ICBM. Furthermore, following China’s military-industrial development model of “exploring one generation, researching one generation, developing one generation, and equipping one generation,” it is believed that the Dongfeng-51 ICBM is already in the development stage.
The launch mission was carried out by the 621st Missile Brigade of the Base 62 of the Rocket Force, likely mobilizing a battalion from its base to the coast of Guangdong, where the missiles were transported by aerospace rocket carrier ships to the Wenchang launch base, before being moved to the launch site. This indicates that the Rocket Force had been preparing for this launch for some time, successfully maintaining secrecy and deception. The outside world only learned of the launch when China’s Ministry of National Defense announced it, revealing that the Rocket Force has developed countermeasures against satellite reconnaissance.
Based on the Project 580, which prepared four missiles for launch, it is speculated that the Rocket Force may have prepared three missiles for this mission (a battalion is equipped with three missiles). This mobile approach demonstrates that the Rocket Force can launch missiles from anywhere within China without relying on fixed positions, requiring only an open area for launch and allowing for rapid repositioning after launch. In other words, the Rocket Force has developed the capability for quick strikes and fast retreats.
Through this test of the Dongfeng-31AG, China aimed to demonstrate the Rocket Force’s nuclear strike capability to the United States and Western countries, attempting to push the US out of the first and second island chains. By leveraging its nuclear arsenal for anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategies, China seeks to achieve a goal that could significantly impact the security of neighboring countries, including Taiwan.
（Translated to English by Chen Cheng-Yi）
