(Professor Li Shui-hui, College of International Affairs, National Cheng-chi University)
The 50th general election of the Japanese House of Representatives, held on October 27, 2024, brought a significant setback to the newly established cabinet under Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader Shigeru Ishiba. Of the 465 House seats, including those from proportional representation, the ruling LDP only secured 191 seats, a substantial drop of 56 seats from its previous 247. Together with the Komeito Party’s 24 seats, the ruling “LDP-Komeito coalition” held just 215 seats. For the LDP to remain in power, it would need to form alliances with other opposition parties to reach a majority of 233 seats. However, major opposition parties like the Constitutional Democratic Party (148 seats) and the Japan Innovation Party (38 seats) have expressed caution and opposition toward forming a coalition with the LDP.
The new Ishiba cabinet sought to capitalize on the “celebratory sentiment” by dissolving the House and calling for elections soon after its establishment to stabilize its political power. However, this election resulted in the LDP’s most severe defeat since 2009. Following the election, key questions remain: Will the “LDP-Komeito coalition” be able to enlist the support of certain opposition parties to retain power? Or will an opposition alliance centered on the Constitutional Democratic Party lead to a regime change? Japan’s political landscape now faces heightened uncertainty and instability.
The main reasons for the LDP’s defeat are threefold. First, adverse global trends are challenging ruling parties worldwide. Issues like inflation, stagnant wages, and bleak job market have put enormous pressure on existing governments. This year, being an election year in multiple democracies, current ruling parties have struggled to handle these major issues effectively. Combined with dissatisfaction among Japanese citizens regarding the rigidity of long-standing economic policies, this led directly to the setback faced by the LDP and Komeito Party.
Second, scandals surrounding political funding have continued to escalate. Initially, the LDP decided to continue endorsing candidates embroiled in political funding issues. Following public criticism, they removed some candidates from the party’s endorsement list but secretly provided them with election funding of 20 million yen, matching that of endorsed candidates, revealing the party’s lax management to political funding.
Third, ideological challenges within the party have arisen. To reduce social misunderstandings about gender diversity, former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida promoted the 2023 LGBT Understanding Act, which alienated some supporters. Additionally, Japan is the only country globally mandating a single surname for married couples, and debates over optional separate surnames during the LDP’s presidential election further estranged conservative supporters within the party.
With the Lower House election results finalized, Japan will convene a special parliamentary session within 30 days to hold another prime ministerial election. As Japan faces pressing domestic and international issues, the trajectory of its political landscape is under intense public scrutiny. The immediate concern is the upcoming prime ministerial election, where fierce competition between the LDP and Constitutional Democratic Party is anticipated. The formation of a stable governance framework remains fraught with uncertainty. Even if the LDP successfully forms a coalition government, current party leader Shigeru Ishiba is likely to face challenges from internal rivals. Furthermore, as Japan approaches year-end budget planning and tax reforms, a unified response to these issues will be much needed. Lastly, with the outcome of the US presidential election, the ongoing Ukraine conflict, and rising tensions in the Middle East, Japan must reconsider its role on the international stage.
On the other hand, Japan’s shifting political landscape also impacts the development of Taiwan-Japan relations. Broadly speaking, under the continuous US-China rivalry, four significant issues are central to Taiwan-Japan relations.
1. The Taiwan Contingency: The US and Japan have repeatedly emphasized the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. Any disruption to Taiwan’s security would directly affect Japan’s maritime lifelines and indirectly impact its national security.
2. Regional Security: With East Asia’s security environment increasingly tense and China’s ongoing efforts to unilaterally alter the status quo through force, the US and Japan have established multi-layered security cooperation. Taiwan, positioned in the center of the first island chain, is critical to the region’s security dynamics.
3. Democratic Alliances: As democratic and authoritarian values continue to clash, an alliance of democracies against authoritarian regimes is becoming a new global political structure. Japan’s strategy to counter China will largely rely on this democratic value chain, and a shared commitment to democracy, freedom, and human rights is a cornerstone of Taiwan-Japan relations.
4. Economic Security and Supply Chains: Economic security, with semiconductors at its core, has become a major component of Japan’s foreign and security strategy. Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, combined with Japan’s strengths in semiconductor equipment and materials, will play an increasingly pivotal role in Japan’s diplomatic and geopolitical strategies.
It is worth noting that Japan’s political stability not only directly impacts its foreign relations and regional dynamics but also indirectly affects Taiwan-Japan relations. The Yomiuri Shimbun, in an October 28 editorial, emphasized that amid uncertainties surrounding the US election, Japan must avoid internal political instability that could disrupt the Japan-US alliance or Japan-South Korea relations. Any weakening of Japan-US-South Korea cooperation could trigger aggressive actions from China, North Korea, and Russia in the region. Naturally, such developments would also bring Taiwan contingency, regional security, democratic competition, and supply chain resilience into focus, significantly influencing the future direction of Taiwan-Japan relations.
（Translated to English by Chen Cheng-Yi）
