(To-hai Liou,Adjunct Distinguished Professor of Diplomacy and Director,Center for WTO Studies, College of International Affairs, National Chengchi University, Taiwan, ROC)
The U.S. presidential election is currently in full swing, and countries all over the world are paying close attention to the election trends. Meanwhile, countries are also actively preparing for possible changes resulting from the election. Polls show that American voters care most about economic issues, and Donald Trump clearly received higher support when asked about candidates' abilities to deal with economic problems. Coupled with the current situation of the U.S. economy, all three indicators are unfavorable for Kamala D. Harris who serves in the Biden administration as Vice President. A Nikkei commentary pointedly indicates that the Biden administration has accelerated the disappearance of the middle class in more than three years, and 40 million Americans have been relegated to the bottom of society. The current prosperity of the U.S. economy is powered by the rich at the top. As of early 2024, the top 20% of the U.S. population owns about 71% of the country’s wealth, while the bottom 50% owns only 2.5% of the country’s total wealth. The richest 1 percent of U.S. households own 30 percent of America's wealth, totaling US$44.6 trillion. In other words, while the world is wondering whether it is possible for the United States to elect a president of Indian descent, the U.S. economy has actually become Indianized. The biggest characteristic of the Indian economy is its severe inequality between the rich and the poor, which is top-heavy. The income of the top 1% of the population (about 9.2 million people) accounts for 22.6% of the total income and more than 40% of India's total wealth.
Because of the three factors, most countries believe that Trump has a high chance of being elected, and have begun to make early arrangements and actively lay out their plans in an attempt to create a favorable situation for themselves with North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong-un(金正恩) in particular being the most sophisticated and cleverly laid out. In September this year, it was reported that Kim Jong-un said that "the United States and Japan have been North Korea's enemies for a century, while China has been an enemy for 5,000 years" and instructed North Korean diplomats in China "no need to worry about China’s feeling.” In the ensuing October, North Korea detonated sections of the Gyeongui and Donghae Line inter-Korean roads, just north of the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) and amended its constitution to list South Korea as its primary enemy. It was clear that North Korea deliberately showed the outside world that China and South Korea were its enemies. Then, tens of thousands of troops were sent to help Russia fight against Ukraine to implement the "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty" signed during Putin's visit to Pyongyang in June this year with a clause "if either party is attacked by a third party, the other would provide support." The military dispatch of North Korea to Russia is designed to tell the world that if a foreign enemy invades North Korea in the future, Russia is also obliged to help. Recently, North Korea has also successfully test-fired a huge new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), Hwasong-19 (火星-19) at a higher-than-normal angle, flying 1,000 kilometers and falling into the Sea of Japan, highlighting that the ICBM's range includes U.S. bases on Guam. Additionally, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui(崔善姬) visited Moscow and held talks with her Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. She said that Kim Jong-un had instructed to assist the Russian army "without hesitation." All of these point to the fact that eyeing the US presidential election, Kim Jong-un is betting big on a Trump win and he wants to help Trump so as to pave the way for North Korea and the United States to improve relations and even establish diplomatic relations and alliances.
On the other hand, Trump seems to be playing a double act with Kim Jong-un, exchanging eyebrows and glances. As North Korea threatens South Korea, Trump said that if he wins the White House, South Korea will have to pay $10 billion per year for the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea. South Korea and the Biden administration have just reached a new agreement in which South Korea's share of defense costs will increase to US$1.13 billion in 2026. That is why Trump’s remarks made South Korea very nervous. On top of that, Trump once said that stupid Biden put China and Russia together, triggering the crisis of World War III. After he takes office, he will break the new cold war built by Biden to resist the authoritarian system of China and Russia with democratic values as the axis. It is likely that once he is elected, Trump would first establish friendly relations with Russia by meeting Putin's needs as much as possible to end the Russo-Ukrainian war, ensure Russia’s willingness to resist China, and then establish diplomatic relations with North Korea to form a new anti-China alliance. This is not impossible. If necessary, South Korea and Japan may also be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. For Trump, his focus is on fighting China, but his real purpose is to force Xi Jinping(習近平) to make major economic concessions. Russia, South Korea and Japan are all bargaining chips for him to negotiate big deals with China. This is Trump's way of negotiation, exhibiting extreme political pressure to force the other party to make huge concessions without spending a dime. If Trump is elected in the future, the three foreign policy orientations of the new government will be unilateralism, economic profit-oriented (with U.S. economic profits as the first priority), and focusing on Asia over Europe.
However, the relationship between the second Trump administration and China may turn to cooperation in the future. The key is whether Trump can get along well with Elon Musk. If their friendship can be sustained, Musk, who has always had a friendly relationship with Beijing, may promote mutually beneficial economic cooperation between the United States and China. For example, in case that China is willing to purchase huge amounts of U.S. bonds in exchange for U.S. support for China to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Tesla and CATL can then cooperate to produce electric vehicles in Mexico. Perhaps Chinese companies may even come to the U.S. to jointly invest in the construction of high-speed railways and the green energy industry with American counterparts, thus creating jobs in the U.S.
With regard to Beijing, China is not happy to see the military cooperation between North Korea and Russia affecting the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula. It is even more shocked that North Korea sends troops to aid Russia. Of course, it is also aware of Kim Jong-un's attempts to support Trump in the election. Beijing has already made preparations for Kim Jong-un's tricks and Trump's return to power. In addition to launching new Dongfeng missiles in the South Pacific and demonstrating a dual-aircraft carrier force via military drills, Xi Jinping went to Russia last month to attend the BRICS summit with Russian Prsident Putin with an aim of strengthening their collaberation in de-dollarization and security. A few days ago, China decided to expand the scope of visa-free countries to Slovakia, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Iceland, South Korea and other countries, extending an olive branch to South Korea and the European Union. Obviously this goodwill gesture is designed to pave a way for possible future engagement to counter a potential coaltion of the US, Russia and North Korea.
