（Tien-Sze Fang, Associate Professor, Center for General Education, National Tsing Hua University; Chairman of the Taiwan Association of India Studies）
The 2024 BRICS summit was held in Kazan, Russia from October 22 to 24. It was the first summit of the bloc after its expansion at the beginning of the year. What also drew attention was the meeting between Chinese and Indian leaders on the sidelines of the Kazan summit. This was the first formal bilateral talks between the two leaders since 2019, signaling that the two countries are turning a new page in their relations.
One day before the Kazan summit, India's Ministry of External Affairs suddenly issued a statement saying that China and India had reached an agreement on related disputes and had gone back to where the situation was in 2020. The disengagement process with China has been completed, said the statement. China subsequently confirmed the development. According to relevant reports, it was mainly about the agreement reached between the two sides on military patrolling in disputed areas. In terms of timing, the announcement in fact sought to pave the way for the summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Kazan.
At the Kazan talks, Xi Jinping stressed that China and India are partners rather than competitors. The two countries are each other’s development opportunity rather than threat. Modi said that China and India should development their relations based on mutual trust, mutual respect and mutual understanding. He believes that the China-India relations are crucial to their people and to peace, stability and development around the world. Although the talks did not yield immediate substantive results, the two leaders smiled and shook hands in front of the world's media, signaling a return to normalcy in their relations.
Economic development needs and a volatile international landscape are two main factors driving the reconciliation between India and China. Modi was re-elected in this year's general election with a lackluster win. One of the main reasons was insufficient job opportunities. India needs to attract foreign investment to strengthen its manufacturing capacity. Trade volume between China and India grew to $118.4 billion in the 2023 to 2024 financial year, while India's trade deficit amounted to $85 billion. India's electronics industry also complains that long delays in visa processing for Chinese technicians have caused an accumulated loss of $15 billion. As a result, the Economic Survey 2023-24 published by India’s Ministry of Finance recommends that New Delhi should attract direct investment from China to integrate into global supply chains and balance its trade deficit with Beijing. The Modi government intends to ease restrictions on Chinese investment and visa policies. However, as a democracy, India has to resolve its border disputes with China to placate domestic opposition. China also faces a sluggish economy these days and needs to expand opportunities for cooperation. Meanwhile, Chinese enterprises operating in India, especially cell phone companies, face pressure from the Indian government's ramped-up scrutiny. A thaw in bilateral relations will help these businesses.
Second, great geopolitical uncertainties also force the two countries to take a serious look at the importance of their relations. India has always sought to maintain its strategic autonomy among great-power camps and has no intention to form an alliance with these countries. But after the 2020 border clash with China, India for a period of time sided with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) to balance pressure from China. It is worth noting that India’s recent relations with Western countries has not been as robust as thought by the outside world despite the fact that it is an important player in the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. India is dissatisfied with the Biden administration's continuous preaching of human rights. Moreover, India and Canada recently expelled each other’s diplomats over the assassination of a Sikh leader. Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar also said that it is more precisely because the West is unwilling to formally admit India as a member of the G7 that India needs to develop the BRICS. Against this backdrop, India has readjusted its diplomatic strategy and returned to the traditional line of balance of interests. New Delhi mends relations with Beijing to create more diplomatic room for maneuver.
On the other hand, most of India's South Asian neighbors are now friendly to China. The development squeezes India's diplomatic space. As a result, India recently has also launched good-neighborly diplomacy to mend relations with its neighbors. India sent External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar on behalf of Modi to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit hosted by India’s old enemy Pakistan on October 15. He became the first Indian foreign minister to set foot in Pakistan in nine years. During his return trip to India, S. Jaishankar posted a message on X thanking Pakistani prime minister and foreign minister for the hospitality, demonstrating a rare friendly atmosphere. Thus the thawing of relations between China and India can also be seen as part of India's conciliatory diplomacy.
After their leaders met in Kazan, relations between China and India will enter a “booming period.” It is expected that the two countries will resume direct flights, foster mutual visits by senior officials and expand people-to-people exchanges. However, there is a serious lack of mutual trust between China and India. The border issue is only one of their many disputes. Sources of mistrust or even hostility include the Tibet issue, the sovereignty of Pakistan and Kashmir, India's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and trade deficit. Therefore, the Modi-Xi summit is only the first step for the normalization of bilateral relations. How to subsequently facilitate the building of mutual trust is in fact of the utmost importance.
（Excerpt translated by Cindy Li）
