(Shui-Hui Li, Professor, Program in Japan Studies, National Chengchi University)
The 50th Japanese House of Representatives election held on October 27, 2024, resulted in a major defeat for the ruling coalition formed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, as predicted by Japanese media before the election. The LDP won 191 seats, a decrease of 56 seats compared to the previous election, while Komeito won 24 seats, a decrease of 8 seats. The coalition won a total of 215 seats together, which is not enough to reach half of the 465 seats in the House of Representatives.
After the results of the House of Representatives election were announced, Japanese media immediately conducted nationwide opinion polls. All surveys showed a significant decline in support for the Shigeru Ishiba Cabinet. For example, according to the Kyodo News survey conducted on October 28 and 29, the approval rating of the Ishiba Cabinet was 32.1%, a drop of 18.6% from the 50.7% when the Cabinet was newly formed on October 1 and 2. A poll conducted by Sankei Shimbun and Fuji News Network (FNN) on November 2 and 3 showed approval rating of 43.8% for the Ishiba Cabinet, a drop of 9.5% compared to the 53.3% support at the beginning of the administration on October 5-6. The Asahi Shimbun poll conducted on November 2 and 3 showed that the approval rating of the Ishiba Cabinet was 34%, a decrease of 12% compared to the 46% in the survey conducted after the Cabinet was formed on October 1 and 2.
The results of the above surveys show that the disapproval ratings exceeded the approval ratings. In the context of post-war Japanese political development, it is quite rare for the disapproval to surpass the approval just over a month after the Cabinet's organization. Meanwhile, in the globally watched US presidential election, the Republican nominee Donal Trump defeated the Democratic nominee Kamal Harris to become the 47th President of the United States. The developments in international and Japanese politics directly influence the future direction of the Ishiba administration. Furthermore, the Ishiba Cabinet faces four major issues and challenges: Japan-U.S. relations, the Japanese economy, Japanese politics, and internal forces within the LDP.
1. Japan-US relations: During the US presidential election, Japan was filled with discussions about “what if Trump wins.” In related discussions, many in the Japanese government and business sectors consider Trump to be an “uncertain factor” in Japan-U.S. relations. In the past, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe established strong Japan-U.S. relations through his personal friendship with Trump, which led to U.S. support for Japan's “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” strategy. However, Shigeru Ishiba, who has had no previous interactions with Trump and advocated for revising the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement, faces the challenge of maintaining close Japan-U.S. relations. Shigeru Ishiba's key stance on Japan-U.S. relations is that revising the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement will help strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance. However, under Trump's assertive diplomatic style, whether Shigeru Ishiba can successfully advance Japan-U.S. diplomacy remains a significant challenge for his foreign policy.
2. Japanese economy: In Shigeru Ishiba's inaugural speech, he prioritized ending deflation and vowed to achieve wage growth outpacing price increases. Ishiba's economic policy, unlike the growth-focused “Abenomics,” emphasizes achieving a virtuous economic cycle through distribution. It is commendable to strengthen redistribution after economic growth is on track. However, during the “lost 30 years,” there were several instances when the economy showed signs of recovery but failed to return to a growth path due to premature tightening policies. In light of this, the success of Ishiba's economic policy lies in whether he can prioritize economic growth over redistribution before the economy fully returns to a growth path. This is a significant challenge.
3. Japanese politics: With the LDP-Komeito coalition unable to secure a majority in the Japanese House of Representatives, Shigeru Ishiba chose to cooperate with the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), which holds 28 seats. The DPP, however, is cautious about joining the coalition, tending to play the role of a “significant minority.” In response, Ishiba administration has actively negotiated with the DPP on issues such as addressing rising prices and raising the basic income tax deduction. The current direction of the ruling coalition is centered on the LDP-Komeito alliance, cooperating with the DPP on policy and organizing a new Ishiba Cabinet with the DPP’s support. But there are different views within the LDP on the DPP’s policy stances. For example, the DPP hopes to increase the basic income tax deduction from the original 1.03 million yen to 1.78 million yen while the LDP is concerned that this increase could cause a loss of 5 trillion yen in government revenue. Policy differences will be a major issue for the LDP’s maintaining governance.
4. Internal forces within the LDP: Although the LDP announced the dissolution of its factions, various influential forces still exist within the party. After the election of the House of Representatives, the major forces in the LDP have changed. In terms of the distribution of seats in the House of Representatives, the Aso faction, the only one that has not dissolved, holds 31 seats, making it the largest force within the LDP in the House of Representatives. Among the main factions, the former Motegi faction holds 27 seats, the former Kishida faction 26 seats, the former Nikai faction 22 seats, while the previously largest Abe faction holds only 22 seats. The current cabinet members and key positions in the LDP under Shigeru Ishiba are mainly from the former Kishida faction, the former Moriyama faction, and centrist groups (such as the Suga Yoshihide faction). The Aso faction, the former Motegi faction, and the former Abe faction have not been given significant positions. With the losing in the election, new competitions have emerged among various forces within the LDP. Coordinating these forces will be another key factor in Ishiba’s maintaining his administration.
（Translated to English by Tracy Chou）
