(Fang Tian-tsu, Associate Professor, Center for General Education, National Tsing Hua University; Chairperson, Taiwan Association for Indian Studies)
Donald Trump won the US Presidential Election in November 2024, becoming the 47th president of the United States and returning to the White House after a four-year hiatus. Unlike his initial 2017 ascent as a political outsider, the general public are now more familiarize with Trump’s antics and statements, lessening the psychological impact but still requiring cautious engagement. India has closely followed the election outcome. Incidentally, both Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and Republican vice-presidential candidate J. D. Vance’s wife, Usha Chilukuri Vance, have Indian heritage. However, India avoided taking sides before the election, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi refraining from meeting with either candidate during his September visit to the US for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD).
Regarding the election’s impact, India’s Minister of External Affairs, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, confidently stated before the election that US-India relations have steadily developed over the past five presidential terms under different political parties. Therefore, regardless of the outcome, India and the US would continue to enhance their relations. This confidence partly stems from the rapport between Trump and Modi. Following Trump’s victory announcement, Modi congratulated him on social media, calling him “my friend” and expressing hope for continued cooperation based on previous successes to strengthen the US-India comprehensive global and strategic partnership. Modi later posted about a “pleasant conversation” with Trump, congratulating him on his “brilliant victory” and anticipating closer cooperation in technology, defense, energy, space, and other areas.
Modi and Trump established a positive rapport during Trump’s prior term. In September 2019, Modi visited the US and attended the “Howdy Modi!” event in Houston alongside Trump, with around 50,000 attendees. In February 2020, Modi reciprocated by organizing a grand welcome for Trump in Gujarat, his home state, gathering 100,000-120,000 people in a cricket stadium. Trump expressed appreciation, saying, “America loves India, America respects India!”
During the election, Trump repeatedly expressed support for India, pledging during Diwali to protect the interests of Indian-Americans from what he described as the radical left’s anti-religious agenda. He also declared a commitment to strengthening the US-India partnership with his “great friend” Modi. These foundations favor the expansion of US-India relations in Trump’s anticipated second term.
Another favorable factor for India is Trump’s likely foreign policy stance. Based on his previous term and campaign rhetoric, Trump is expected to adopt a tougher stance on China. Under this framework, India may be viewed as a key strategic partner for countering China in US foreign policy. India, scheduled to host next year’s QUAD meeting, might use this occasion to invite Trump for another visit, reinforcing bilateral ties. Furthermore, India has chosen not to condemn Russia in the Ukraine conflict due to its traditional friendship with Russia, a stance that has drawn criticism from Western countries. Given Trump’s nuanced relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a potential softening of the US position on Russia under Trump could benefit India in maintaining its relationship with Russia.
India has also been discontent with the Biden administration’s frequent emphasis on human rights issues. Modi’s recent US visit in September did not include National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, who was subpoenaed by a US court in connection with an alleged assassination attempt on Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh. In contrast, Trump has shown little interest in India’s human rights and democracy issues. During Trump’s previous term, the US refrained from intervening in India’s sensitive decisions, such as abolishing Kashmir’s autonomy and amending its citizenship law, which may lead to reduced friction on these topics under Trump’s administration.
On the economic and trade front, the outlook is mixed. Trump is expected to continue his “America First” and protectionist policies, which could challenge US-India economic relations. Trade tariffs are a primary concern. Trump has highlighted the need for “reciprocity” in tariffs, criticizing India’s high tariffs on foreign goods. Trump’s administration might press India on this issue. Meanwhile, increasing tariffs on imports to the US could impact India’s IT, pharmaceutical, and textile industries, which rely on the US market. However, as India’s economy is primarily domestically driven, it might experience a relatively mild impact from Trump’s protectionist trade policies. On the other hand, Trump’s push to “decouple” from China and reshape the global supply chain could benefit Indian manufacturers through friend-shoring initiatives.
Visa policies also present a concern. India’s software industry, reliant on the US market, depends heavily on H-1B work visas to send personnel to the US. In the 2023 fiscal year, 72% of H-1B visas were granted to Indian applicants, highlighting its importance. During Trump’s previous term, H-1B and L-1 visa rejection rates rose, along with attempts to raise wages for foreign workers. Should Trump reinstate these policies, it could pose challenges for India’s tech industry.
Trump’s presidency is undoubtedly marked by strong personal style and unpredictability, and US-India relations will also be influenced by developments in US-Pakistan and US-China relations. Nonetheless, India views Trump’s election positively, considering it beneficial to India’s diplomacy despite mixed economic prospects. Overall, Trump’s election presents “more advantages than disadvantages” for India, with potential for positive growth in US-India relations.
（Translated to English by Chen Cheng-Yi）
