(By Shen Yu-Chung, Professor, the Department of Political Science, Tunghai University; Deputy Minister, Mainland Affairs Council)
The United States recently completed its 47th presidential election as well as the re-election of the Senate and House of Representatives. As a result, Republican Donald Trump won the presidency by securing a majority in both the popular vote and the electoral vote. The Republican Party also won a majority of seats in both the Senate and the House, organizing a majority government. It allows Trump to govern fully under relatively stable political conditions.
Trump's strong return to the White House, though not completely unexpected, still caused a major geopolitical earthquake globally. Especially given Trump's unpredictable nature, there is significant attention on what policies he will adopt towards Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and the Middle East after taking office. In terms of Europe and the trans-Pacific NATO, the role of the US will directly influence the course of the Russia-Ukraine war in the short term. It may also force the EU and NATO to accelerate the development of “strategic autonomy” in the long run. Due to the tight global interconnection, US-China relations and EU-China relations may also see some changes.
From the perspective of European geopolitics, Ukraine is undoubtedly the first to be impacted. Based on his pre-election statements and positions, there is a high probability that Trump will significantly reduce, if not completely end, military and economic aid to Ukraine in a short period of time. If the US cuts or reduces its aid to Ukraine, it will create significant pressure on the EU and NATO. It is highly possible that Ukraine, heavily relying on external aid to resist Russian military aggression, be forced to the negotiating table with Russia. One possible outcome is that Ukraine will lose the territories occupied by Russia in exchange for a ceasefire. Although Ukraine might join the EU after the ceasefire, it is still difficult to join NATO at this stage. As for whether the occupied territories will become demilitarized buffer zones or exist in another way, Trump's stance will be crucial.
During the election campaign, Trump had repeatedly stated that NATO and European countries need to increase their defense budgets and military spending. During Trump's first term (2016-2020), European countries had been seriously considering the issue of strategic autonomy to reduce their dependence on the US. As Trump has regained power, it is generally believed that European countries will accelerate and deepen their adjustments towards strategic autonomy. To build a NATO without the US (or at least not led by it) will be the efforts of the European countries to make in the next four years. However, all EU members have different national interests, which increases the difficulty of reaching consensus towards strategic autonomy.
In terms of EU’s strategic autonomy, it involves the strengthening of military security independence, and a probable slight adjustment to its policy towards China. Regardless of whether the US-China economic and technological conflicts intensify, the EU may strengthen its communication with China to manage risks and avoid being drawn into a full-scale economic and technological conflict between the US and China. In other words, increasing autonomy and reducing the influence of the US will be significant for the EU in both security issues and relations with China.
For China, Trump's winning the election may once again escalate trade conflicts between the two sides; however, Beijing may probably also use Trump's return to power to divide US-European relations and obtain more favorable international conditions. In the Indo-Pacific region, Biden has established several small multilateral frameworks such as the US-Japan-South Korea alliance, AUKUS, and the QUAD in the past four years. Whether Trump will continue these frameworks remains uncertain. That is to say, even though US-China relations may not improve under Trump's administration, Beijing can at least reduce diplomatic pressure by dividing US-European relations and weakening multilateral frameworks in the Indo-Pacific. This will also be a major strategic goal for China.
In addition, Germany, another major country in Europe, saw the collapse of its coalition government following the US election, and an early election is expected in March next year. Both the US and Germany on the two sides of the Atlantic Ocean are set to welcome new governments in 2025. The next steps for NATO, for the Russia-Ukraine war, for the US-China relations, and for the EU-China relations are full of uncertainties.
（Translated to English by Tracy Chou）
