(Tai-yuan Yang, Contract Research Fellow of the Institute of Chinese Communist Studies)
The Type 052C missile destroyer (pennant number: 153) and Type 054A missile frigate Yiyang (pennant number: 548) of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command Navy and the Type 054A missile frigate Zaozhuang (pennant number: 542) of the PLA Northern Theater Command Navy entered the West Pacific from the East China Sea via the Miyako Strait between November 28 and 29, 2024. It was believed that the PLA conducted joint air and sea exercises to support the strategic patrol.
China's Ministry of National Defense announced that China and Russia carried out their 9th joint air strategic patrol over the Sea of Japan according to the two militaries’ annual cooperation plan on November 29. The PLA Air Force sent two H-6N long-range strategic bombers (of the Central Theater Command Air Force), two J-16 fighters (of the Northern Theater Command Air Force), one Y-9 electronic reconnaissance aircraft and one KJ-500 airborne early warning and control aircraft. Russia dispatched two Tu-95MS strategic bombers (of the 37th Far Eastern Aviation Army of the Russian Aerospace Forces), one Su-35S fighter (of the 303rd Composite Aviation Division of the 11th Air and Air Defense Forces Army of the Eastern Military District) and one A-50U air early warning and control aircraft. Chinese and Russian aircraft successively flew into the air defense identification zone over the waters of eastern and southern South Korea and soon flew away on November 29. Then the aircraft flew over the Sea of Japan. After reaching the Tsushima Strait, the Russian Su-35 and the two PLA J-16 escort fighters completed mission handover. The Su-35 returned to its base. The Russian A-50U made 8-shape flight over the Sea of Japan, while the PLA KJ-500 made rectangular flight over the East China Sea.
China and Russia carried out the second phase of the 9th joint air strategic patrol on November 30. The PLA sent fourteen aircraft, including two H-6N bombers (of the Central Theater Command), one Y-9LG electronic jamming aircraft (GX-12), one Y-9Z integrated electronic reconnaissance aircraft, one YY-20 tanker, one KJ-500 command and control aircraft, six J-16 fighters (of the Eastern Theater Command Air Force) and one unknown aircraft. The aircraft along with two Russian Tu-95s and two Su-35s entered the West Pacific from the East China Sea via the Miyako Strait to conduct strategic air patrol.
According to the data analysis released by Japan’s Joint Staff Office, at least fourteen military aircraft were dispatched to cross the island chain in the second phase of the China-Russia joint air strategic patrol. Three types of PLA aircraft participated in crossing the island chain for the first time, namely YY-20 tanker, Y-9LG electronic jamming aircraft and H-6N bomber. They demonstrated that the PLA Air Force has been gradually perfecting its ability to conduct system warfare and deep strikes.
The military deployment in the first phase of the joint air strategic patrol showed that the core of the China-Russia drills in the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan was to practice small-force and rapid maneuver in an attempt to harass and disrupt military strategic cooperation between South Korea and Japan. The core of the second phase of the exercise was to demonstrate the ability to carry out deep strikes and defend against military intervention by a strong enemy, suggesting that China’s major enemies should refrain from intervening in affairs within the first island chain.
China has long kept its strategic nuclear weapons extremely secret. However, Beijing has been continuously conveying the message that it dares to fight and is capable of fighting a nuclear war of late due to the influence of the Russia-Ukraine war and as the United States shifts its main strategic focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. The first instance is that the 621st Missile Brigade of the 62nd Base of the PLA Rocket Force test-fired a DF-31AG strategic missile to the South Pacific near Wenchang City in Hainan Province on September 25. Secondly, Xi Jinping inspected the 611th Brigade (Unit 96711) of the 61st Base of the PLA Rocket Force during a tour to Anhui on October 17. 25 DF-26 ballistic missile launchers were on display, aiming to highlight the strategic strike capability of the DF-26. In other words, China has demonstrated its land-based strategic nuclear forces to the outside world this year. China shows that it has intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) for comprehensive nuclear exchange with its powerful enemies and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) for theater-level nuclear warfare and strikes against the enemies’ main forward operating bases. Thirdly, China used the 9th China-Russia joint air strategic patrol to show its air-based strategic nuclear power through the participation of the H-6N bomber. The PLA is now capable of theater-level nuclear strikes and has means to conduct comprehensive and general nuclear strikes. In just three months, China has demonstrated its land-based and air-based nuclear capabilities to the outside world. For nuclear trinity, only its sea-based capabilities have not been revealed yet. Therefore, the author believes that the PLA Navy will probably test the JL-2AG or JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missiles from a Type-094 nuclear submarine in the near future.
In summary, although the 9th joint air strategic patrol between China and Russia was a scheduled annual exercise, the PLA’s unprecedented use of the H-6N bomber showed that China’s core intention and purpose was to demonstrate its air-based nuclear strike capability and defense against military intervention by a strong enemy. This is worthy of our continuous attention and research.
(Translated to English by Cindy Li)