Analysis of the Possibility of Xi Jinping Attending Trump's Inauguration Ceremony

Release Date : 2024-12-18

By Chou Wen-Feng, Assistant Professor, Graduate Institute of Strategic Studies, National Defense University

US President-elect Trump, while attending the opening bell ceremony at the New York Stock Exchange on the 12th of this month, mentioned that he has been considering inviting “certain people” to his inauguration. Although some people believe this might be a bit risky, Trump said he “likes to take a little risk.”

Trump team spokesperson Levitt later confirmed that after the election ended on November 5, Trump had already invited Chinese leader Xi Jinping to attend the inauguration, but the Chinese side has not yet confirmed whether Xi will attend. Levitt's subsequent statement is even more intriguing. He said, “in addition to Xi Jinping, other foreign leaders have also been invited. This is an example of President Trump initiating new dialogues with world leaders, not only with our allies but also with our adversaries and competitors.”

In fact, it is not customary to invite foreign heads of state to the US presidential inauguration. Since 1874, no foreign head of state has attended a US presidential inauguration. Usually, it is only attended by foreign representatives stationed in the US. This is partly because of security concerns and partly because the inauguration itself is an event for the American people.

However, Trump’s move once again proves that he is a president who does not follow conventions. Trump has repeatedly stated that he will impose an additional 60% tariff on all goods from China after taking office. He also plans to cancel the “permanent normal trade relation” with China to counter China’s various unfair trade practices against the US, reduce the US trade deficit, and force Beijing to choose trade options that align with US economic interests. This move has made Xi Jinping to repeatedly state that building “small court with high fences” and “decoupling and disruption of supply chains” will bring harm to others without benefiting oneself. Countries should take economic interdependence as a way to complement each other's strengths for mutual benefits, instead of perceiving it as a risk. During a meeting with the heads of ten international economic organizations on December 10, Xi Jinping once again called for maintaining dialogue, expanding cooperation, and managing differences with the United States to promote stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-US relations and he also expressed hope that the US would work together with China towards this goal.

Then what is Trump’s strategic purpose in inviting Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration? It mainly aims to highlight the correctness and effectiveness of Trump's policy towards China, emphasize his “good relationship” with Xi Jinping, and clearly prepare a “diplomatic toast” to Xi in advance. First, if Xi Jinping travels a long distance to attend Trump's inauguration, it would symbolize China’s acknowledgment of US power and be seen as a witness to the transfer of power in a democratic country.

Second, Trump places significant importance on personal relationships with leaders of other countries and believes that such relationships and exchanges can extend to the political level. For example, Trump has always claimed that he and Xi are good friends, believing that Xi would therefore change or refrain from making certain special decisions. Inviting Xi to the inauguration ceremony could restore this kind of relationship. Trump also said that the relationship between the United States and China had remained good in the past, but it regressed too far because of the “COVID-19 pandemic.” In the future, the US will hold talks with China.

And, if Trump can gain the support of China in exerting international influence, it will be more conducive to mediating the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East conflict, achieving his strategic goals. Additionally, Trump also hopes that China will implement the previously reached “Phase One Trade Agreement,” adjust its currency policies, and expand its purchases from the US. Therefore, just as he hosted Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago, Trump hopes to use the same approach to give Beijing sufficient “face” and to receive corresponding returns.

Although Beijing has not yet officially responded, it is widely believed that the Chinese foreign affairs system has already conducted multiple simulations. The considerations include: first, the leader traveling thousands of miles to the U.S. for an audience would undermine the dignity of a great power and highlight the awkward differences of the two political systems, and no Chinese leader has ever attended the inauguration of a foreign head of state. Second, based on the Mar-a-Lago experience, if Trump makes shocking remarks or actions towards China during Xi's visit to the US, Xi will be unable to avoid them. Moreover, if the US insists on starting a trade war or tech war against China after Xi's visit, it will severely damage Xi's prestige. Third, Chinese leaders only undertake foreign visits when they can achieve “significant diplomatic results,” such as signing important political or economic agreements or enhancing bilateral strategic relations. Before Trump's inauguration, it is unlikely that China and the US will complete such arrangements.

However, even if Trump extends the invitation through an informal channel, China will not take it lightly. For Beijing, the “safest" and most appropriate approach is to send a high-level delegation led by a special envoy to attend Trump's inauguration. This would serve as a positive response to the goodwill from the US side, demonstrating support for the Trump administration, while signaling a willingness of arranging mutual visits between Xi and Trump at an appropriate time. As for the best candidate for the Chinese special envoy, it should still be Han Zheng, the Vice President of China. However, it could also be the retired former Vice Premier Liu He, who is familiar with the China-U.S. trade disputes, frequently participates in high-level economic meetings even after retirement, and was the official who signed the “Phase One Trade Agreement” with Trump, fitting the definition of a “good friend.”

Translated to English by Tracy Chou