（Chao Chun-shan, Honorary Professor, Tamkang University）
After 15 months of conflict in the Gaza Strip, representatives from Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas reached a preliminary ceasefire agreement on January 15. The agreement was set to be implemented in three phases. In the first phase, Israeli forces would completely withdraw from densely populated areas in Gaza, Hamas would release 33 hostages, and hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians would be allowed to return home. In the second phase, Hamas would release the remaining surviving hostages, including Israeli male soldiers and conscripts, while Israel would withdraw entirely from Gaza. The third phase would involve Hamas returning the remains of deceased hostages and initiating the reconstruction of Gaza, along with the establishment of new governance and security structures.
The ceasefire deal was brokered by the United States. As the Biden administration approached the end of its term, it sought to propose a plan that, while imperfect, was at least acceptable to all parties—effectively passing this difficult issue to the next president. With the US administration set to change hands on January 20, pressure mounted on both Israel and Hamas to accelerate negotiations after months of delays. Then President-elect Donald Trump had warned that unless Hamas released the Israeli hostages before he took office, it would “pay a heavy price.”
The ceasefire provided both sides with some breathing room. While Hamas enjoyed support from the “Axis of Resistance,” an anti-Israel coalition in the Middle East, the war had inflicted severe losses on Gaza. Reports indicated that 46,000 people, mostly unarmed civilians, had died. Over 80% of the population had been displaced, and one-third of Gaza’s residents were on the brink of starvation.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had previously rejected calls for a ceasefire, arguing that it would amount to surrendering to Hamas. However, it appeared that the reality had forced his hand. Hamas’s surprise attack on October 7, 2023, initially won Israel strong international support. But Israel’s retaliatory airstrikes quickly turned it into a target of global criticism. The worsening conflict also led to economic troubles, including reduced investment and labor market disruptions, with Israel’s high-tech sector taking the heaviest blow.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres had warned: “The unprecedented death and destruction in Gaza could send shockwaves that push the entire region into the abyss. A devastating firestorm looms ahead.” While the ceasefire agreement brought a glimmer of hope for peace in the Middle East, the fuse of war remained unextinguished.
The fate of Hamas remained one of the major challenges in implementing the ceasefire agreement and determining Gaza’s future governance, as it continued to be designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and other countries. At the same time, opposition to the ceasefire persisted within the Israeli government. Although the agreement had been approved, dissenting voices remained, with far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir resigning in protest. More significantly, just before the ceasefire took effect, Netanyahu publicly declared, “With US support, we reserve the right to resume the war if necessary.”
The role of the United States continued to be a decisive factor in determining the course of the conflict. Trump faced a complex situation as he took office. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict had already become a divisive issue within American society, particularly due to the US election. This was evident during US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s final press conference on January 16, where he was repeatedly interrupted by reporters critical of Israel’s actions. Meanwhile, US policy in the Middle East could not overlook Iran’s role, as it remained Hamas’s most significant backer. The Biden administration had previously sought to promote reconciliation between Israel and Saudi Arabia as a way to isolate Iran, but Israel’s airstrikes on Gaza had only fueled anti-Israel sentiment across the Arab world, giving Iran further justification to assert its influence.
Ultimately, the issue of Palestinian statehood remained an unavoidable challenge for US Middle East policy. During his first term, Trump brokered the “Abraham Accords,” which symbolized Arab-Israeli reconciliation, but this diplomatic agreement was nothing more than words on paper and did little to advance the Palestinian cause.
（Translated to English by Chen Cheng-Yi）
