（To-hai Liou,Adjunct Distinguished Professor of Diplomacy and Director,Center for WTO Studies, College of International Affairs, National Chengchi University）
In less than a month since his inauguration, US President Donald Trump has been making a series of world-shaking statements, threatening to take back control of the Panama Canal, claiming that the United States will buy Greenland, and making Canada the 51st state of the US. In particular, Trump's Gaza Strip proposal was an absolutely shocker. He said that after Israel occupies Gaza by force and expels its residents, the U.S. will take over the area and accept investment from countries like Saudi Arabia to develop it into a holiday resort. He argued that the Palestinian residents of Gaza should settle in Egypt or Jordan and need not return to Gaza. One might think that he is just talking nonsense on a whim without careful consideration, but he is actually laying the groundwork for his grand strategy. It is a strategy that will bring about major changes in the global political and economic structure that few countries will be able to avoid.
As Kenneth Boulding, a guru of decision-making theory, advocates, it is not the facts that matter, but the perceptions of the decision-maker that matter most, because the worldview of the leader is the key variable in determining the content of the policy. Trump's repeated claims that “TSMC stole the U.S. chip business, and his threat to raise tariffs on TSMC by 100%” is a perfect example. This may be his negotiating tactics to threaten the other side by talking big and forcing them to make major concessions so as to win without a fight. What really deserves our attention is Trump's hierarchical view of the world. From Trump's point of view, countries are categorized into three tiers. The first tier includes the United States, Russia and China, while the second tier comprises less important countries such as Israel, Japan, India, North Korea and so on. The third tier consists of those countries that the U.S. can easily control (small and weak countries within its sphere of influence, such as Canada and Mexico) or that the U.S. can use as bargaining chips in negotiations with either Russia or China, such as Ukraine, the European countries, South Korea, Philippines and Taiwan. The most striking example of this hierarchization of international relations is Trump's direct negotiation with Vladimir Putin on a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war without prior consultation with the European Union and Ukraine. On the other hand, the U.S. and China are trying to dominate the second and third tiers of countries and economies by leveraging technological advantages such as artificial intelligence (AI), 5G communication technology, low-orbit satellites, self-driving, mobile payments, space tourism, and big data centers.
Trump, who believes in neorealism and mercantilism, is convinced that the big powers dominate the international arena, and that small and medium-sized countries have no choice but to adapt. Big powers can divide their spheres of influence in order to maintain peace and protect their interests. Nihon Keizai Shimbun has noted this point, and a recent article pointed out that with Trump's rise to power, international relations have reverted to the Yalta Treaty era. The biggest feature of the international system at that time was that it was dominated by the two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union. They divided spheres of influence around the world, such as the division of the Korean peninsula into North Korea and South Korea and the separation of Germany into East Germany and West Germany, and non-aggression in order to maintain temporary peace. Nowadays, the United States, a sea power, and China and Russia, two land powers, are about to divide their spheres of influence. Trump calls Canada the 51st state of the United States, and by taking the Panama Canal and acquiring Greenland he is establishing his own sphere of influence before entering dividing the globe with the other two powers over sphere of influence. With the integration of Canada and the Panama Canal, not only will the U.S. become politically and economically great again, but Trump has already negotiated a truce in the Russo-Ukrainian war with Putin, who will likely sacrifice the interests of Ukraine and the European Union under the principle of U.S. priority in order to maximize the satisfaction of Russia's needs, and the U.S. and Russia will thus be able to embark on a honeymoon period in order to drive a wedge between Russia and China, as Putin will be much less dependent on China and will become a target of competition between the United States and China. It is reported that Trump has proposed “letting the US own 50% of rare earth mines in Ukraine” and is willing to send US troops to protect them after the war. After acquiring Greenland, the United States and Russia may also reach an agreement on Arctic sea routes in the future. Trump's announcement that the United States would allow Gaza was announced after talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which shows that the two have already reached an agreement. This move will enable the US to use Israel to dominate the Middle East and curb the penetration of China and Russia. In the future, the US and Russia might build their strategic partnership through their co-chairmanship of other regions. The most likely case is the Ukraine future relevant to Europe security. Conversely, the US and China may intensify their rivalry over global spheres of influence, and we cannot rule out the possibility of the US and Russia joining forces to fight against China. In other words, Trump’s grand strategy is just like a jigsaw, including at least four major piece: North America, the Arctic, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific. After Trump expanded his sphere of influence in North America, he completed the agreement with Putin on ending the war between Russia and Ukraine (The US and Russia take charge of Europe affairs) and sharing the Arctic region, as well as on dominating the Middle East via Israel, without China's involvement. In this way, when Trump negotiates with Xi Jinping eventually, he will have enough chips on the table, and Trump might even normalize relations with North Korea to add another bargaining chip if necessary.
Against this background, we have already seen that China and the U.S. have been at loggerheads over the Afghanistan issue in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The dispute has been simmering since late 2024, but has intensified in the last few weeks since Trump's inauguration. This is also explainable why Beijing has recently continued to demonstrate its force in the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, and South China Sea, apparently to show Trump that this is China's sphere of influence. The Financial Times lately reported that Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, pointed out that the People's Liberation Army's activities around Taiwan have increased significantly in recent years. The People's Liberation Army's military exercises are actually deceiving others and concealing combat warnings, and it is likely to happen every day. In addition, Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani recently stated that the activities of Chinese warships in the Pacific and East China Sea have increased dramatically. In 2024, Chinese warships sailed through the waters around Japan's southwestern islands 68 times, more than three times the number in 2021. Moreover, Philippine officials said China is pushing the country "to the wall" with growing aggression in the disputed South China Sea. A large Chinese coast guard ship patrolled hotly disputed Scarborough Shoal in recent days and then sailed toward the north-western coast of the Philippines, coming as close as 77 nautical miles (143 kilometres). On top of that, China has strengthened relations with Southeast Asian countries via high speed rail link recently. Thai prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra just met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing with an agreement about high speed railway to link the two nations. The Thai Cabinet a few days ago approved the second phase of the delayed Thailand-China high-speed railway, from Nakhon Ratchasima to Nong Khai in north-eastern Thailand, meant to link to Yunnan province in China via Laos. This will pave the way for the ongoing Malaysia-Singapore high speed rail to link from Bangkok to China in the future, forming the so-called Trans-Asia Railway Network. Previously, Last year, China and Vietnam already reached the consensus to start building two high-speed railway lines linking its capital Hanoi with China before 2030. One of the planned high-speed lines would run from Vietnam’s port cities of Haiphong and Quang Ninh through Hanoi to Lao Cai province, which borders China’s Yunnan province. The other would run from Hanoi to Lang Son province, which borders China’s Guangxi region, passing through an area densely populated with global manufacturing facilities, including some owned by Chinese investors. The two routes together form a branch of Trans-Asia Railway Network.
