（Chao Chun-shan, Emeritus Professor, Tamkang University）
The US-China economic and trade talks, led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, concluded in Geneva on May 11. A joint statement shortly followed announcing an agreement that within the next 90 days, the US would lower tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China would reduce tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%.
As the world's two biggest economies facing irreversible globalization, both China and the US recognize that trade wars result not only in mutual harm but also negatively impact other countries.
This recent trade war stemmed from US President Donald Trump's punitive "reciprocal tariff" policy, primarily targeting China but leading to compounded negative effects on the US stock, currency, and bond markets. Trump's decision to pull back now can be seen as recognition of these unintended consequences.
Meanwhile, despite China's initially firm stance of "no kneeling, no retreat," continued tariffs or embargos would only further strain an already sluggish Chinese economy.
The negotiation results have temporarily relieved global concerns. Although Trump's unpredictability means future surprises cannot be ruled out, negotiations are always preferable to confrontation, and any agreement is better than none.
In November 2022, former US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping reached consensus during the G20 summit in Indonesia on maintaining ongoing dialogue and managing differences, thereby resuming strategic communication channels. However, with Trump's return, relations deteriorated again due to tariff disputes, reducing dialogue to mere rhetoric.
Strategic mistrust between the US and China has long existed, rooted in divergent values, political systems, and geopolitical interests. Wang Jisi, founding dean of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University, and Scott Kennedy, Chair of the Chinese Business and Economics Council at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), jointly emphasized in Foreign Affairs that "lack of dialogues, visits, and exchanges increases the risk of conflict."
Therefore, the Geneva talks marked a positive step toward "negotiation instead of confrontation." Notably, the joint statement emphasized: "Given recent discussions, both sides believe continued negotiations can resolve economic and trade concerns. In the spirit of mutual openness, sustained communication, cooperation, and mutual respect, the relevant work will continue. A mechanism will also be established for ongoing economic and trade consultations."
The world this year remains turbulent, with conflicts in Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, and India-Pakistan raising global security risks, often reflecting power struggles behind the scenes. The positive signals from the Geneva talks caused immediate surges in global stock markets, underscoring the global influence of US-China relations.
Xi Jinping has remarked, "The Pacific Ocean is big enough to accommodate both China and the US." Although America's comprehensive national power has diminished somewhat, it remains the world's sole superpower. China's rise is undeniable, yet it neither seeks nor can currently challenge American hegemony. Therefore, neither side should fall into the "Thucydides Trap." The US and China should resolve international disputes through negotiation and encourage other conflicting parties to pursue peace through dialogue.
（Translated to English by Chen Cheng-Yi）
