(Adjunct Distinguished Professor of Diplomacy and Director, Center for WTO Studies College of International Affairs National Chengchi University To-hai Liou)
While negotiating with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the United States was actually deceiving him. Once the time was ripe and the inside-outside coordination was in place, it launched a lightning-fast unexpected military raid, catching Maduro and his wife. Trump subsequently announced that the United States would "administer" Venezuela, appointing Secretary of State Marco Rubio, fluent in Spanish and familiar with Latin American affairs, as "Governor-General" until the transition of power is complete. The costs of this administration would be compensated with Venezuelan oil. While this was not the first time the U.S. had invaded a South American nation militarily—President George H.W. Bush had overthrown Panama's strongman Manuel Noriega in December 1989. What makes Trump's move so shocking is his prior rhetoric about being a peacemaker and seeking the Nobel Peace Prize. Yet he first bombed Iran's nuclear facilities last year and now blatantly disregards international law by launching a military invasion of a sovereign nation to forcibly abduct its leader for trial in the U.S. What are Trump's true motives and objectives? How will this impact the international political and economic landscape?
It is evident that the Trump administration's surprise attack on Maduro was meticulously planned. This military operation effectively implements the strategic security priorities outlined in last year's National Security Strategy Report, which identified the Western Hemisphere (North and South America) as the administration's foremost strategic security concern. The move aims to secure strategic resources like oil and critical minerals as lithium and rare earth while asserting the region as America's sphere of influence, countering hostile infiltration, and reviving the Monroe Doctrine in the 19th century. Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves at 303.2 billion barrels, accounting for one-fifth of global reserves. In addition, the three Latin American countries with huge lithium stocks are Bolivia, Argentina, and Chile, forming the "Lithium Triangle," holding over half the world's known reserves, with Bolivia often cited as having the largest deposits, followed by Argentina and then Chile, though Chile leads in production.
In recent years, relations between China and Latin American countries have made great strides, especially with the Maduro government. China is Venezuela's largest creditor and oil buyer. Last year, more than 85% of Venezuela's crude oil exports went to China, and more than 60% of the payments were settled in RMB, much of which was used to repay loans. Between 2000 and 2023, Venezuela was the fourth largest recipient of Chinese overseas loans. Chinese-funded projects in the country are estimated at US$60 billion, making them among China's most important investments globally. China is also Venezuela's largest source of foreign direct investment, totaling approximately US$18-20 billion, followed by Russia (US$9-13 billion) and the United States (US$7-10 billion). In terms of loans, China also ranks first, lending the Venezuelan government US$40-42 billion, five times the amount Russia lends. Russia only surpasses China in military-technical cooperation with Venezuela. Targeting at China, US President Trump just declared that the Caracas authorities had reached a landmark agreement with Washington, under which Venezuela will export up to US$2 billion worth of crude oil to the United States. This deal not only means that crude oil originally destined for China will be repurposed and diverted to the US market, but also symbolizes the Venezuelan interim government's formal "full opening" of its oil industry to US energy giants following the US military raid and arrest of Nicolas Maduro. According to the agreement details, Venezuela will "transfer" 30 to 50 million barrels of high-quality, sanctioned crude oil to the US. Venezuela is required to "surrender" 50 million barrels of oil to the US.
It is not difficult to see that the Trump administration's goal of overthrowing Maduro is less about combating drug trafficking and oil nationalization that cost American companies their investments, and more about expelling “hostile forces” threatening the U.S. homeland from Venezuela. Trump views China's active penetration of Venezuela—which holds the world's largest oil reserves—as a thorn in his side that must be removed. Of course, this also serves as a warning to pro-China Latin American regimes to stop, or they will likely suffer the same fate as Maduro. Even Greenland is now feeling a chill down its spine, worried that it might be Trump's next target.
President Trump has made it clear that “acquiring Greenland is a top priority for U.S. national security, crucial for deterring our adversaries in the Arctic,” and has not ruled out the use of military force. Greenland lies on the shortest flight path for missiles between Russia and the United States, and Washington already maintains a military base there. With the melting of polar ice, new shipping routes have opened up; Russia controls the Northeast Passage (NSR), while Canada controls the Northwest Passage (NWW). More importantly, Greenland is able to control both passages. The Arctic Ocean route further shortens the travel time between Asia and Europe by more than ten days. Last year, China successfully utilized this route for the first time when Poland briefly suspended the China-Europe freight train service, bypassing Poland's obstruction. In other words, the world's first China-Europe-Arctic container express route has officially opened. The route takes the Arctic Northeast Passage, passing through the Bering Strait, with a one-way journey of approximately 18 days, which will break the shipping time record from Ningbo to Europe. For a long time, it took at least 40 days for goods from China to be transported to Europe via the Cape of Good Hope, but global warming has led to a reduction in Arctic sea ice, making transport via the Northern Sea Route increasingly feasible.
Despite Trump's efforts to consolidate his sphere of influence, including the arrest of Maduro to demonstrate American hegemony and his strong leadership in order to bolster his chances in this year's midterm elections, he has faced international condemnation and may face serious consequences. To China and Russia, the US is demonstrating that, for national interests and to maintain its sphere of influence, a powerful nation can arbitrarily detain foreign leaders, seize assets, and remotely control governance. For example, Russia could now justify its aggression against Ukraine by claiming Zelensky's desire to join NATO jeopardizes its national security, and could even find a pretext to brazenly invade other European countries in the future. China could certainly claim sovereignty over the entire South China Sea and claim the Taiwan Strait its backyard. This would likely lead to increased military action to deter foreign warships from operating in these waters. We cannot completely rule out the possibility of China taking military action to occupy Taiwan. For small and medium-sized countries, this is nothing short of alarming. It signifies that powerful states can flout international law with impunity, marking a return to the imperialist colonial era of the pre-World War I and pre-World War II periods—a time when might made right.
In conclusion, Trump's decapitation strike against Venezuela has ushered in a new era of great power politics. International interactions in this new era will be heavily influenced by the three superpowers, namely the US, China, and Russia. The relationship between these three powers will be determined by their core interests and spheres of influence. If they get along, they will respect each other's core interests and spheres of influence. If they don't, there will be bargaining, political, military, and economic competition and strategic pushing and shoving. Meanwhile, the remaining small and medium-sized countries will become bargaining chips or prey for the great powers in their negotiations. However, this does not imply that the international system will stabilize. In fact, wars between superpowers—or even a third world war—could potentially erupt. Most international relations scholars believe that a tripolar system is less stable than a bipolar one. Unlike the bipolar Cold War era in the previous century, where only two major blocs faced off, making balance easier to maintain, a tripolar system is difficult to balance. This makes a two-against-one scenario highly likely, significantly increasing the probability of war.
